{"id":38004,"date":"2025-12-31T15:37:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T07:37:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=38004"},"modified":"2025-12-31T15:37:36","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T07:37:36","slug":"into-2026-preparing-for-the-trifecta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/week_ahead\/into-2026-preparing-for-the-trifecta\/","title":{"rendered":"Into 2026: Preparing for the Trifecta"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Santa Claus Rally arrived right on cue. Now traders look ahead to the next steps in the January Trifecta \u2014 and whether the Fed\u2019s path, labour data, and institutional flows will confirm one of the market\u2019s most bullish seasonal signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the January Trifecta?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The January Trifecta is a seasonal pattern tracked by technicians and institutions alike. It is confirmed only when three events<\/strong> occur in order<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Santa Claus Rally<\/strong> Gains during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January. Early signs are positive, but we now look towards the first two days in January to confirm the signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. First Five Trading Days<\/strong> If the S&P 500 closes higher during the first five days of the year, it implies fresh institutional flows entering early.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. January Barometer<\/strong> If the S&P 500 finishes the full month of January with a gain, it historically signals a strong year ahead.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Together, these three legs form the \u201cJanuary Trifecta\u201d \u2014 a rare signal, but one that has proven remarkably predictive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Historical Performance: Numbers Matter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Since 1950, whenever the full Trifecta has been triggered, the S&P 500 has ended the year positive 90% of the time<\/strong>. In those years, average returns have landed in the 15% to 17%<\/strong> range, well above the historical average. This isn’t just about direction \u2014 it\u2019s about magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It functions like a launch sequence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n