Nucor Corporation has projected fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 between $1.65 and $1.75 per share. This prediction shows a decrease from the third quarter’s $2.63 but an improvement from the fourth quarter of 2024’s $1.22.<\/p>\n
The anticipated decline is linked to seasonal factors and fewer shipping days affecting all business segments. In the steel mills sector, reduced shipment volumes and margin pressure, especially in sheet products, are expected. The steel products segment may experience lower profitability due to reduced volumes and higher average costs per ton, though this may be partly offset by better pricing. The raw materials segment’s performance might weaken due to planned outages at direct reduced iron facilities.<\/p>\n
Despite these challenges, Nucor remains committed to shareholder returns, repurchasing approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of $145.23, totalling 5.4 million shares repurchased in 2025 at $128.66 per share. Including dividends, total returns to shareholders in 2025 amount to $1.2 billion.<\/p>\n
For 2026, Nucor is optimistic due to higher order backlogs, particularly in construction-linked markets. The company expects market conditions to improve with support from monetary, tax, and trade policies and will release its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 26, 2026.<\/p>\n
NUE shares have risen 27.3% in the last six months, compared to the industry’s 33.6% increase. NUE holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while other firms like Commercial Metals Company, Ternium S.A., and Centerra Gold have higher Zacks Rankings.<\/p>\n
With Nucor’s fourth-quarter earnings guidance already public, we see the market has likely priced in the sequential decline. The key event now is the January 26, 2026 earnings call, which will shift focus to the company’s optimistic outlook for the new year. This creates a clear setup for trades that look past the known short-term weakness.<\/p>\n
Given the strong order backlogs for 2026, one approach is to use call options to bet on a positive reaction to forward guidance. We could look at buying February or March 2026 call options, positioning for a potential stock price increase after the earnings report. This strategy wagers that the market will care more about the strong future than the weak quarter that just ended.<\/p>\n
This optimistic view is supported by recent economic data, as non-residential construction spending showed a modest increase in the latest reports from late 2025. Furthermore, we’ve observed that hot-rolled coil steel futures, after a dip in the autumn of 2025, have begun to stabilize and trend slightly upward this month. These factors lend credibility to management’s forecast of improving market conditions.<\/p>\n
However, we must also prepare for volatility, as the actual results could miss the low end of guidance or contain a negative surprise. A long straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date, could be used to profit from a significant price move in either direction. This strategy focuses purely on the magnitude of the post-earnings stock movement, not the direction.<\/p>\n
For those of us already holding Nucor stock, selling covered calls with a January or February 2026 expiration is a way to generate income from the elevated implied volatility ahead of the earnings release. Historically, we have seen that implied volatility for Nucor tends to be higher before an earnings announcement, offering attractive premiums. This move would capitalize on the potential for the stock to trade sideways or decline slightly in the immediate term.<\/p>\n
The company\u2019s significant share repurchases, amounting to 5.4 million shares in 2025, create a level of support for the stock price. This consistent buying pressure can cushion against steep drops. This makes strategies like selling cash-secured puts potentially more appealing, as the buybacks suggest a limit to the downside risk.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nucor projects lower Q4 2025 earnings, but sees optimism for 2026 amid improving construction market demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37240\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}