{"id":37196,"date":"2025-12-18T18:16:38","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T10:16:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=37196"},"modified":"2025-12-18T18:16:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T10:16:38","slug":"oil-faces-headwinds-despite-modest-uptick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-faces-headwinds-despite-modest-uptick\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Faces Headwinds Despite Modest Uptick"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil1-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41756\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI trades near $56.05<\/strong>, up 1.0% intraday but still near multi-year lows<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Brent crude<\/strong> edges up 0.75% to <strong>$60.12<\/strong>, as traders reassess supply risks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market shrugs off <strong>U.S.-Venezuela tensions<\/strong>, focus shifts to <strong>supply fundamentals<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices attempted a modest rebound on Thursday, with <strong>front-month WTI crude<\/strong> up 1% to <strong>$56.49 per barrel<\/strong>, yet broader market sentiment remains decisively bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil rebounds from lowest levels since 2021 after Trump orders Venezuela oil tanker blockade <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hcEnTlQOKM\">https:\/\/t.co\/hcEnTlQOKM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2001282344003465332?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>daily chart shows WTI hovering near its lowest levels since 2021<\/strong>, with technical indicators suggesting continued weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to our research desk, the oil market is likely to remain oversupplied through next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the U.S. has intensified sanctions-related pressure on Venezuela, the impact on global supply is expected to be <strong>limited<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Venezuelan National Assembly unanimously approved a resolution rejecting US President Donald Trump&#39;s order to impose a full blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving the country <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RXlW52btLU\">pic.twitter.com\/RXlW52btLU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2001505198783762458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Surplus Fears Overpower Supply Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders remain focused on <strong>weak refinery demand in Asia<\/strong> and <strong>resurgent production from OPEC+ members<\/strong>, which continue to weigh on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Fed\u2019s dovish tilt<\/strong> this month has supported risk sentiment but failed to meaningfully lift oil, underscoring the market\u2019s fixation on fundamentals rather than monetary tailwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Fed issued guidance to banks that encourages firms to engage in \u201ccertain innovative activities,\u201d another step by US regulators to welcome novel business tie-ups into the fold of traditional finance <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oVKUdw9zK8\">https:\/\/t.co\/oVKUdw9zK8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2001407833577824456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With <strong>global inventories well above five-year averages<\/strong> and slowing consumption forecasts from both the <strong>IEA<\/strong> and <strong>OPEC<\/strong>, analysts expect crude to remain rangebound \u2014 <strong>stabilising around the mid-to-high $50s<\/strong> through the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude remains under pressure, trading near <strong>$56.05<\/strong>, down <strong>1.14%<\/strong> on the day and testing a multi-month support zone. The broader trend has been bearish since peaking at <strong>$77.89<\/strong> in July, with the price consistently failing to reclaim the 30-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent candles show increased downside momentum as sellers gain control, dragging price action further below all short-term MAs (5, 10, 30), a clear sign of weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-28-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37197\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator confirms the bearish bias, with both signal and MACD lines moving further into negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a short-term bounce could occur near this support level, momentum and trend indicators suggest further downside risk unless supply disruptions or OPEC+ commentary offer fresh catalysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If support at <strong>$56.00<\/strong> breaks decisively, next targets may lie closer to the <strong>$53\u2013$50<\/strong> region. Bulls remain sidelined for now, with a confirmed break above <strong>$60<\/strong> needed to challenge the prevailing downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While short-covering may support temporary rallies, the broader picture points to <strong>structural weakness<\/strong> in the oil market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless demand indicators improve or OPEC+ signals coordinated cuts, prices are likely to remain <strong>anchored below $60<\/strong> well into 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude prices remain under pressure, with market sentiment weighed down by expectations of a lingering supply surplus and muted demand growth. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-37196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37196"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37196\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}