AUD\/JPY falls to approximately 103.15 during Monday’s early European session. Despite weaker-than-expected data from China affecting the Australian Dollar, the bullish outlook persists, with the 100-day EMA and RSI indicators showing positive momentum. The initial resistance level is at 104.42, while support is observed at 102.42.<\/p>\n
China’s Retail Sales grew 1.3% year-over-year in November, down from 2.9% in October, with Industrial Production increasing 4.8%, both missing market expectations. This shortfall may impact the AUD as China, Australia’s primary trading partner, reduces demand. Market anticipation remains on the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, with an expected hike to 0.75%.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY holds above the 100-day EMA at 99.38, maintaining a bullish bias, with price above the Bollinger midline and below the upper band. The RSI level stays above the neutral 50 at 60.04, supporting a bullish outlook. Upside continuation needs a move through 104.42, with initial support at 102.42 and deeper support at 99.38.<\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate levels, Australia’s resource exports, and its Trade Balance play key roles in determining AUD value. The health of China’s economy significantly influences AUD, with Iron Ore prices impacting Australia’s largest export value. A positive Trade Balance supports AUD, whereas a negative balance could weaken it.<\/p>\n
As of today, December 15th, 2025, we see AUD\/JPY trading firmly around 105.50, pushing higher than the 103.15 level we observed last week. This move confirms the underlying bullish trend, which has been supported by iron ore prices holding strong above $140 per tonne. The technical picture remains positive, with the pair now well clear of previous resistance.<\/p>\n
The concerns about weak Chinese data that weighed on the Aussie dollar early in the month have eased slightly. While the November data we saw last week was indeed disappointing, fresh figures released today show Chinese Industrial Production for November revised up to 5.1% and Retail Sales showing a modest rebound. This less pessimistic outlook from Australia’s largest trading partner is providing a tailwind for the AUD.<\/p>\n
Looking back, the Bank of Japan’s decision last Friday was a key catalyst for the pair’s recent move higher. The market had priced in a hawkish interest rate hike to 0.75%, but the BoJ delivered a more cautious hike to just 0.50%. This less aggressive stance weakened the Yen and widened the interest rate differential in the Aussie’s favor.<\/p>\n
On the Australian side, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% in its early December meeting, as expected. The latest quarterly inflation figures from October showed CPI was still at 3.8%, well above the RBA’s target band, suggesting rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This policy divergence between a patient RBA and a slow-moving BoJ continues to be the primary driver of AUD\/JPY strength.<\/p>\n
From a technical standpoint, the pair has decisively broken through the 104.42 resistance level that we were watching. This level should now be considered a potential support zone for any pullbacks in the coming weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought, indicating there could be more room for the rally to run.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment suggests that buying call options or establishing bull call spreads could be an effective strategy to capture further upside potential. These positions would benefit from a continued grind higher towards the 106.00-107.00 region. We should use any dip towards the 104.50 area as an opportunity to enter or add to bullish positions, while keeping an eye on upcoming global inflation prints.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY remains bullish above 100-day EMA despite weak China data; key resistance at 104.42, support 102.42.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36836\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}