{"id":36796,"date":"2025-12-15T11:50:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T03:50:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=36796"},"modified":"2025-12-15T11:50:27","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T03:50:27","slug":"week-ahead-ai-capex-shapes-risk-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-ai-capex-shapes-risk-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: AI Capex Shapes Risk Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-55-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36807\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI infrastructure spending remains a key driver of US equity sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders assess whether heavy capex can support current valuations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Non-Farm Payrolls and BOJ policy decision headline the macro calendar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USD, gold, oil, and Bitcoin consolidate near key technical levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The AI theme continues to dominate equity positioning, but the tone has changed. Markets have moved away from optimism around intelligence gains and toward a harder focus on economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current phase of the AI cycle centres on infrastructure, power consumption, and chip ownership rather than software headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If Google wins AI race, Nvidia is &quot;in trouble,&quot; says author of &quot;The Thinking Machine,&quot; a Jensen Huang biography, Stephen Witt. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9crP2gxjNG\">https:\/\/t.co\/9crP2gxjNG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2000250955032412165?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Major US technology firms are collectively spending more than $400 billion this year on AI-related chips, data centres, and energy capacity, while AI-driven profits remain far lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This imbalance keeps valuations sensitive to earnings guidance and capex discipline. Traders are increasingly alert to the risk that AI adoption may prove slower or less profitable than equity prices imply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This tension helps explain why US indices have struggled to sustain breakouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The SP500 recently printed a new all-time high before reversing lower, reflecting growing hesitation rather than outright risk aversion. Momentum remains constructive, but the margin for disappointment has narrowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wall Street&#39;s major indexes closed lower, with the Dow losing half a percent, the S&amp;P 500 shedding 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging 1.7% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zHJnEPaHGA\">https:\/\/t.co\/zHJnEPaHGA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5Y8HNpioHc\">pic.twitter.com\/5Y8HNpioHc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1999695776247898302?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For traders, AI continues to support the broader equity trend, while also acting as a volatility trigger when expectations slip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Dollar Pressure Builds Ahead of Key US Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar enters the week on the defensive, with the USD Index finding support near 97.90. Last week\u2019s price action reflected growing conviction that the Fed may need to ease further as labour conditions soften.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dollar set for weekly decline after Fed meeting, sterling steadies as economy shrank <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OhV025optW\">https:\/\/t.co\/OhV025optW<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OhV025optW\">https:\/\/t.co\/OhV025optW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1999427786822332424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast at 50K, down from 119K previously, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A print close to forecasts would reinforce expectations of a slower US economy and could extend downside pressure on the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump&#39;s Fed pick comes into focus, economic data backlog clears: What to watch this week <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Tcvu0BTM4j\">https:\/\/t.co\/Tcvu0BTM4j<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2000205657228652645?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Dollar weakness continues to underpin select risk assets, though traders remain reluctant to chase moves ahead of data confirmation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Central Banks Add Cross-Currents to FX Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Central bank decisions add another layer of complexity. The Bank of England is expected to cut its Official Bank Rate to 3.75% from 4.00%, placing focus on forward guidance rather than the cut itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Britain&#39;s economy contracted unexpectedly in the run-up to UK finance minister Rachel Reeves&#39; tax-raising budget, as disappointing GDP figures fueled investor bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JFLu2YgLsR\">https:\/\/t.co\/JFLu2YgLsR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cjCoaFOlb3\">pic.twitter.com\/cjCoaFOlb3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1999512065799823482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling reactions are likely to depend on whether policymakers signal further easing in early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Japan, the Bank of Japan is forecast to raise its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. Any indication that policy normalisation will continue could lend support to the yen and cap USDJPY rallies, particularly if US data disappoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japan&#39;s government reportedly plans new tax breaks despite debt concerns <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Pzy8tyhEej\">https:\/\/t.co\/Pzy8tyhEej<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Pzy8tyhEej\">https:\/\/t.co\/Pzy8tyhEej<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1999225200093663243?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX | SP500 | XAUUSD | USOIL | BTCUSD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Date<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Currency<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Previous<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Analyst Remarks<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Non-Farm Employment Change<\/td><td>50K<\/td><td>119K<\/td><td>Soft data may extend USD weakness.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>4.50%<\/td><td>4.40%<\/td><td>Rising unemployment supports easing expectations.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18 Dec<\/td><td>GBP<\/td><td>Official Bank Rate<\/td><td>3.75%<\/td><td>4.00%<\/td><td>Focus on BoE guidance beyond the cut.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>CPI y\/y<\/td><td>3.00%<\/td><td>3.00%<\/td><td>Stable inflation keeps policy outlook unchanged.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>19 Dec<\/td><td>JPY<\/td><td>BOJ Policy Rate<\/td><td>0.75%<\/td><td>0.50%<\/td><td>Hawkish signals may strengthen JPY.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Market&#8217;s <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/economic-calendar\/\">Economic Calendar<\/a><\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-10-1024x547.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36800\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The index made a fresh all-time high before pulling back sharply.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AI-heavy stocks continue to drive direction, but valuations face tighter scrutiny.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A sustained hold above 6,790 keeps upside open; failure may accelerate profit-taking.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-9-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36799\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold retreated from 4,360 and now consolidates near 4,220.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Holding above this zone may open a move back toward 4,300.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US data remains the primary short-term catalyst.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/2_image-8-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36798\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX found support near 97.90 after last week\u2019s decline.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance sits near 98.30 and 98.55.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weak labour data could expose the 97.40 area.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"548\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-7-1024x548.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36797\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a descending channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A close below 87,712 could expose lower levels near the 70K handle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recovery attempts depend on stabilising risk sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The AI theme continues to support US equities, but traders are becoming more selective as infrastructure costs rise and earnings expectations face closer scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US labour data, inflation readings, and key central bank decisions will help determine whether easing expectations remain justified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A softer data run could keep pressure on the dollar and support gold and risk assets, while any upside surprise may prompt sharper pullbacks as positioning adjusts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Create a live <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets accoun<\/a>t today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets enter the new week focused on AI investment dynamics, central bank decisions, and US labour data. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":36807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-36796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead","tag-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}