EUR\/USD moves around the 1.1640 mark after dipping to weekly lows of 1.1615. The US Dollar loses some recent gains, with market participants awaiting the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.<\/p>\n
A 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed is widely anticipated. Attention turns to the rate projections and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for further direction.<\/p>\n
Data from the US shows a rise in job openings to 7.67 million in October, exceeding expectations. Previous sticky inflation figures also suggest a possible “hawkish cut” by the Fed.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD trades below a trendline support at 1.1665. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI display mild bearish momentum.<\/p>\n
The Fed’s core responsibilities include keeping inflation at 2% and full employment. Its interest rate decisions can significantly influence the US Dollar’s strength.<\/p>\n
The US job market shows resilience with rising job openings, indicating potential support for consistent economic momentum. The European Central Bank maintains a positive outlook on growth, implying an end to its easing cycle.<\/p>\n
Percentage changes in currency values show Euro is strongest against the Canadian Dollar, with other currencies exhibiting varying degrees of movement against each other.<\/p>\n
With the Federal Reserve’s decision just hours away, the market has already baked in a quarter-point rate cut. The real opportunity for traders will come from the Fed’s forward guidance and Jerome Powell’s tone. We are positioned for a significant move, as any deviation from a simple “dovish cut” could catch many off guard.<\/p>\n
Recent data adds weight to the idea of a “hawkish cut,” where they lower rates now but signal a pause. Last week’s employment report showed the economy adding a solid 199,000 jobs, with unemployment falling to 3.7%. This, combined with last month’s sticky Consumer Price Index reading of 3.1%, gives the Fed cover to remain cautious on inflation.<\/p>\n
If Powell emphasizes this strong data, the US Dollar will likely rally. In this scenario, we would look to add to bearish EUR\/USD positions, potentially using put options to target a break below the 1.1600 level. The pair\u2019s failure to reclaim the 1.1665 trendline already signals underlying weakness.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, we must consider the risk that the Fed is more concerned about a slowdown than the data suggests. After the aggressive rate hiking cycle we saw back in 2022 and 2023, policymakers are wary of overtightening the economy. A surprisingly dovish message from Powell, hinting at more cuts in 2026, would weaken the dollar significantly.<\/p>\n
Should the Fed signal a more aggressive easing path, we would be prepared to reverse our view and initiate long positions. Buying call options on EUR\/USD would be a viable strategy to capitalize on a potential surge past resistance at 1.1682. This move would be further supported by the European Central Bank\u2019s recent language suggesting its own easing cycle is over.<\/p>\n
Given the binary nature of the event, volatility is the most certain outcome. For those unwilling to bet on a direction, options strategies like a long straddle could be effective. This would allow a trader to profit from a large price swing in EUR\/USD, regardless of whether it shoots up or down following the announcement.<\/p>\n
Looking into the next few weeks, the key will be the divergence between the Fed and other central banks. While US inflation remains a concern, the latest figures from the Eurozone showed inflation cooling to 2.4%, which could limit how hawkish the ECB can truly be. We will be closely watching this policy gap, as it will likely dictate the primary trend for EUR\/USD heading into 2026.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD steadies near 1.1640; markets eye Fed rate decision, Powell\u2019s comments, and economic projections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}