{"id":36475,"date":"2025-12-10T18:31:54","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T10:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=36475"},"modified":"2025-12-10T18:31:54","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T10:31:54","slug":"oil-prices-tread-water-as-supply-fears-linger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-prices-tread-water-as-supply-fears-linger\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices Tread Water as Supply Fears Linger"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/oil5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17016\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude trades around $58.25 as prices remain confined within a tight range<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bearish undertone persists amid lacklustre demand and softening macro backdrop<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MACD remains flat, signalling a lack of clear momentum ahead of OPEC and IEA updates<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices held steady on Wednesday, with WTI clinging to the <strong>$58.20\u2013$58.40<\/strong> level, as traders digested ongoing diplomatic efforts surrounding the war in Ukraine and anticipated Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s upcoming commentary on interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The highest weekly crude shipments since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine aren&#39;t helping Russia. Ballooning volumes of undelivered oil on tankers are boosting a supply glut that&#39;s undermining prices and hitting the Kremlin&#39;s war chest, writes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JLeeEnergy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@JLeeEnergy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lchsBU6X6M\">https:\/\/t.co\/lchsBU6X6M<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1998369189862465992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While tensions in Eastern Europe continue to simmer, they have failed to ignite any sustainable rally in oil. Instead, the market has remained trapped in a sideways grind, with buyers cautious and sellers reluctant to press prices too far below support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The oil market is headed for a \u201csuper glut\u201d next year as a wave of new supplies may run up against sluggish demand, global commodities trader Trafigura says <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/T8CSryGOPy\">https:\/\/t.co\/T8CSryGOPy<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1998387291325100339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Supply-side developments<\/strong> have done little to shift sentiment. Our research desk notes that although Russian seaborne exports remain elevated, the barrels are increasingly difficult to place due to global <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xkDJZqoXw1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">buyers&#8217; reluctance<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This logistical bottleneck is limiting downside pressure, but not enough to spur meaningful upside either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The technical picture reflects a market caught in limbo. WTI crude has been trading within a <strong>range of $56 to $60<\/strong> for several weeks, consolidating after the steep drop from the June peak at <strong>$77.89<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent bounce from the <strong>55.95 low<\/strong> failed to extend much beyond the 30-day moving average, indicating <strong>weak buying interest<\/strong> at current levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-16-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36476\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Moving averages (5, 10, 30) have flattened and converged, showing indecision in trend direction. Meanwhile, the <strong>MACD<\/strong> remains close to the zero line with no strong divergence, highlighting the <strong>absence of momentum<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prices are oscillating near the lower band of a longer-term descending channel, with lower highs since mid-year reinforcing the broader <strong>downtrend bias<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless bulls reclaim the $60\u2013$62 region, oil remains vulnerable to fresh declines, particularly if OPEC and IEA reports reinforce the demand weakness narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With fundamental catalysts still in flux and technicals showing no clear direction, WTI crude is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. Traders may stay sidelined ahead of Thursday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sq4SO7ueE7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">OPEC<\/a> and IEA monthly reports, which could provide clarity on whether demand headwinds or supply tightening will dominate the next leg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Discover more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energy Products<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI crude holds near $58 as market weighs geopolitical risk, excess supply, and Fed outlook. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-36475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36475\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}