{"id":36322,"date":"2025-12-09T11:04:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T03:04:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=36322"},"modified":"2025-12-09T11:04:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T03:04:08","slug":"gold-steady-as-markets-brace-for-fed-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/gold-steady-as-markets-brace-for-fed-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Steady as Markets Brace for Fed Decision"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-24T190408.948-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19121\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold trades near <strong>$4,200<\/strong>, supported by rate cut bets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed expected to deliver a <strong>25bps cut<\/strong>; markets now see only <strong>two more cuts in 2026<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China boosts gold reserves for the <strong>13th consecutive month<\/strong>, totalling <strong>74.12M ounces<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices held firm around <strong>$4,192 per ounce<\/strong> on Tuesday, remaining within striking distance of recent highs as markets priced in an <strong>87% chance<\/strong> of a rate cut by the <strong>US Federal Reserve<\/strong> later this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Unprecedented gold prices and a surge in retail sales may push revenue at Thailand\u2019s largest gold trading house to a record $156 billion this year, according to Hua Seng Heng CEO Tanarat Pasawongs <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4qrv1cYxIz\">https:\/\/t.co\/4qrv1cYxIz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1998167431345324218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are now shifting focus from the cut itself to the <strong>forward guidance and updated dot plot<\/strong>, which will likely shape expectations well into 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While a 25bps reduction has been widely telegraphed, there\u2019s growing caution around how many additional cuts the Fed is willing to commit to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just last week, the market was pricing in <strong>three cuts for next year<\/strong>. That number has since eased to <strong>two<\/strong>, as resilience in <strong>labour and services data<\/strong> challenges the more aggressive easing case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">JOLTS, Powell, and Inflation Projections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the Fed speaks, attention turns to the <strong>JOLTS job openings<\/strong> report due later today. The data will offer another look into <strong>labour market tightness<\/strong>, which has so far supported the Fed\u2019s higher-for-longer stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combined with last week\u2019s mixed signals from <strong>ADP\u2019s drop of 32K<\/strong> and <strong>Challenger\u2019s November layoffs climbing to 71K<\/strong>,the Fed now faces a more nuanced inflation\u2013labour backdrop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">What can markets expect from the Fed in 2026 and what might the economy look like?<br><br>On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PIMCO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@PIMCO<\/a>, joins <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheStalwart?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@thestalwart<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tracyalloway?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@tracyalloway<\/a> to discuss why AI and President Trump&#39;s big beautiful bill may drive\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZHFoKzAVQ2\">pic.twitter.com\/ZHFoKzAVQ2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1998180904083095899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair <strong>Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference<\/strong> will be closely parsed for clues on how the FOMC views the balance of risks moving forward. Any dovish lean could send gold toward retesting <strong>$4,381<\/strong>, the recent high from late October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">China\u2019s Gold Appetite Grows<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In a supportive fundamental backdrop, <strong>China\u2019s central bank<\/strong> continued to diversify reserves, increasing gold holdings for the <strong>13th straight month<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">China\u2019s central bank added to its gold reserves for a 13th straight month, according to data released on Sunday <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XmBDv0umLF\">https:\/\/t.co\/XmBDv0umLF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1997498462846308442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to data from the People\u2019s Bank of China, total reserves now stand at <strong>74.12 million troy ounces<\/strong>, signalling ongoing strategic demand for bullion amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Persistent buying from sovereign institutions adds a layer of support beneath the market, particularly as physical demand from India and the broader Asia region also holds firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold is trading near <strong>$4,191.96<\/strong>, holding steady in a tight consolidation band just below the key resistance at <strong>$4,220<\/strong> and not far from its recent high at <strong>$4,381.32<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price action over the past few weeks suggests a healthy pause after October&#8217;s strong rally, with buyers continuing to defend higher lows while waiting for a fresh catalyst to break out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-14-1024x454.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36323\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The moving averages (5, 10, and 30) remain bullishly aligned, with the 30-day MA providing dynamic support around $4,100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD, while still above the zero line, has flattened significantly; a sign that momentum is neutralising but not yet reversing. The histogram reflects this, showing minimal volatility and subdued conviction in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A clean break and daily close above <strong>$4,220<\/strong> could pave the way for a fresh rally toward <strong>$4,300<\/strong> and eventually <strong>$4,380\u2013$4,400<\/strong>, while a drop below <strong>$4,100<\/strong> would expose the lower range near <strong>$3,950\u2013$4,000<\/strong>. For now, the trend remains bullish, but the market is coiling for a directional move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s policy statement looming, markets are unlikely to push gold significantly in either direction without further clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;We&#39;re preparing for a more dovish Fed next year for more rate cuts, and we think that has ramifications for small caps, and we also think it&#39;s bullish for bitcoin,&quot; Innovator Capital Management strategist <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TimUrbanowicz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@TimUrbanowicz<\/a> says. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HpZvRAGb94\">pic.twitter.com\/HpZvRAGb94<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1998047473806246085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A dovish dot plot and Powell\u2019s reassurance on inflation control may rekindle momentum, while any hawkish undertones or reduced rate cut projections could cap gains near $4,200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, macro tailwinds from central bank demand to softening US yields suggest <strong>gold\u2019s broader bullish structure remains intact<\/strong> into early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Precious Metals<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a> today.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold prices hovered near recent highs as traders awaited the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy announcement, hedging toward a 25-bps rate cut. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19121,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[6,13],"class_list":["post-36322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-gold","tag-precious-metals"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36322"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36322\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}