{"id":35729,"date":"2025-12-02T11:28:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T03:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35729"},"modified":"2025-12-02T11:28:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T03:28:00","slug":"oil-gains-on-short-term-supply-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-gains-on-short-term-supply-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Gains on Short-Term Supply Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41758\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI rose 0.3% to <strong>$59.50<\/strong> while Brent gained 0.2% to <strong>$63.31<\/strong> in early Tuesday trading.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ukrainian drone attacks and rising tensions with Venezuela raise short-term supply risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OPEC+ sticks to limited output increases as demand worries persist, keeping downside pressure alive.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday as traders digested a second straight session of geopolitical flare-ups. <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> rose <strong>18 cents<\/strong> to <strong>$59.50<\/strong>, while <strong>Brent<\/strong> added <strong>14 cents<\/strong> to trade at <strong>$63.31<\/strong> per barrel by 01:02 GMT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both benchmarks had already advanced over <strong>1% on Monday<\/strong>, but gains are beginning to show signs of fatigue amid a complex macro backdrop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are still processing the fallout from a major <strong>Ukrainian drone strike<\/strong> on Russian oil facilities last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine carried out record attacks on strategic oil infrastructure in Russia in November amid the US attempts to broker a peace deal to end the near four-year war <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hc2MssnV0m\">https:\/\/t.co\/hc2MssnV0m<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1995482717857763391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Caspian Pipeline Consortium<\/strong> confirmed the partial resumption of exports from its Black Sea terminal after <strong>Single Point Mooring 1 (SPM 1)<\/strong> came back online. However, <strong>SPM 2 remains damaged<\/strong>, highlighting the vulnerability of infrastructure in an increasingly unpredictable war theatre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles most of Kazakhstan\u2019s crude exports through Russia to the Black Sea, halted loading after one of its three moorings was damaged <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sBB8TeVaKT\">https:\/\/t.co\/sBB8TeVaKT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1994741901057040603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Russian media outlet <strong>Kommersant<\/strong> reported that exports are running at reduced capacity, heightening concerns around refined product supply, particularly diesel and gasoil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our research desk noted that while near-term risk premiums may linger, structural demand softness still casts a long shadow over the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US\u2013Venezuela Tensions Add a New Risk Layer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Compounding the instability is the widening rift between <strong>Washington and Caracas<\/strong>. A <strong>senior U.S. official<\/strong> said <strong>President Trump<\/strong> held high-level discussions about intensifying the pressure campaign against <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>, raising speculation that <strong>oil exports may be further restricted<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd0a\u200a&#39;We&#39;re not sure what action Trump is willing to take.\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JSymmesCobb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@JSymmesCobb<\/a> on the confusion in Caracas after Trump\u2019s airspace comments and his confirmation that he\u2019s spoken to Venezuela\u2019s Nicolas Maduro by phone <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SnzFuHazCu\">https:\/\/t.co\/SnzFuHazCu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5O4MtqyVLH\">pic.twitter.com\/5O4MtqyVLH<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1995474256952459550?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On Saturday, Trump described the airspace above and around Venezuela as \u201c<strong>closed in its entirety<\/strong>,\u201d though details remain vague.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ANZ analysts<\/strong> warned that escalation could disrupt supply at a time when the global market is already on edge from Russian instability. Although Venezuela\u2019s oil output remains below pre-sanction levels, any incremental tightening can impact regional balances\u2014particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf Coast refining hubs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">OPEC+ Offers Little Lifeline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> reaffirmed its <strong>small output hike for December<\/strong> but confirmed it will <strong>pause increases in Q1 2026<\/strong>, citing weakening global demand and the risk of oversupply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">New OPEC+ production mechanism will help stabilise markets, Saudi energy minister says <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XXbtM6xrom\">https:\/\/t.co\/XXbtM6xrom<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XXbtM6xrom\">https:\/\/t.co\/XXbtM6xrom<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1995587490120445963?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That cautious tone mirrors the concerns voiced across the oil complex over the past month, as Chinese demand recovery remains patchy and Western inventories remain ample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil continues to trade sideways near the $59 mark, struggling to find direction after months of persistent lower highs since the sharp July peak at $77.89.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite several attempts to break higher, price remains capped beneath the descending 30-day moving average, and the chart reflects a heavy consolidation pattern with tight, choppy movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support at $55 has held firm multiple times, reinforcing its importance as a key floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/4_image-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35731\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD remains flat near the zero line, with momentum offering little indication of a breakout in either direction. The current setup suggests indecision, with neither bulls nor bears in full control. For any sustained upside to develop, oil must reclaim the $63\u2013$65 range, which has repeatedly acted as resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, a confirmed break below $55 would likely accelerate selling pressure toward the $52\u2013$50 zone. Until then, oil looks trapped in a narrow holding pattern, awaiting a fundamental catalyst to shake it loose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If no further escalation materialises in Ukraine or Venezuela, oil may struggle to hold above <strong>$59.00<\/strong>, with downside risk toward <strong>$57.50<\/strong> and <strong>$55.00<\/strong> increasing into year-end. However, further military or political surprises could spur another volatility-driven bid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Discover more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energy Products<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil climbed for a second session on Ukrainian strike concerns and U.S.\u2013Venezuela tensions, weak demand and cautious OPEC+ guidance cap upside. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-35729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}