{"id":35373,"date":"2025-11-27T13:36:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T05:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35373"},"modified":"2025-11-27T13:36:39","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T05:36:39","slug":"copper-climbs-on-codelco-price-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/copper-climbs-on-codelco-price-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper Climbs on Codelco Price Shift"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-25-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35377\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Copper rose to $5.10\/lb<\/strong>, marking a four-week high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chile\u2019s <strong>Codelco offered $350\/ton premiums<\/strong> to Chinese buyers\u2014quadruple last year\u2019s levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Move suggests <strong>Codelco may favour US customers<\/strong>, raising supply concerns in Asia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed rate <\/strong><strong>cut<\/strong><strong> bets<\/strong> add macro tailwinds to industrial metals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Copper futures are climbing again, with <strong>COMEX copper nearing $5.10\/lb<\/strong>, its highest level since October, after top producer <strong>Codelco offered sharply higher premiums to Chinese buyers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Chilean copper producer Codelco is pushing for a massive hike in annual premiums for refined metal supplies to its Chinese customers <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y19StK7cQU\">https:\/\/t.co\/y19StK7cQU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1993261643644469646?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The $350\/ton premium over LME prices signals tight physical supply and a <strong>potential reorientation toward US buyers<\/strong> amid geopolitical and strategic shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Chinese smelters secured deals at only $89\/ton, so this dramatic premium jump suggests <strong>buyers may face increased difficulty securing forward supply<\/strong>, particularly if Codelco diverts shipments to North America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Demand Outlook and Fed Easing Reinforce Bullish Case<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Longer-term, the copper market faces <strong>structural deficits<\/strong>, driven by surging demand from EVs, renewables, and grid infrastructure. The supply side remains fragile, with few major new mines coming online and declining ore grades at existing sites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Compounding the bullish tilt, the macro backdrop is turning supportive again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Markets now price in an 85% probability<\/strong> of a 25bps Fed rate cut in December. <strong>Three more cuts are priced in by end-2026<\/strong>, boosting growth and infrastructure investment prospects globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Traders crowd into Fed futures targeting a December rate cut <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2IUMDeF4HL\">https:\/\/t.co\/2IUMDeF4HL<\/a> via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@business<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1993650955003535481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This shift in interest rate expectations also weakens the dollar, typically a <strong>positive factor for dollar-denominated commodities<\/strong> like copper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Copper prices have stabilised after the sharp August crash from the 5.89 peak to the 4.29 low, with the current price hovering around 5.08.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since September, the market has moved into a sideways range, with the 5.00\u20135.10 zone acting as a magnet and capping both bullish and bearish attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-47-1024x449.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35374\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The short-term moving averages are starting to compress again, reflecting the low volatility and tight consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD has flattened just above the zero line, showing neutral momentum. There&#8217;s no clear trend bias at this stage, although the longer-term 30-day MA is beginning to slope upward again, suggesting mild recovery potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A breakout above 5.15 would offer a bullish signal and open the way toward 5.30, while a close below 4.95 would put 4.70 back in play. Traders should be watching for volume spikes or macro catalysts to break this consolidation phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Codelco\u2019s pricing shift may represent more than a one-off event\u2014it could mark a <strong>new chapter in global copper trade flows<\/strong>, one where <strong>supply nationalism<\/strong> and <strong>strategic alliances<\/strong> shape access and pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With rate cuts in sight, infrastructure demand potentially heating up, and long-term structural tightness returning to focus, <strong>copper appears well-positioned to extend gains into 2026<\/strong>, barring a major economic downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should watch upcoming <strong>Chinese PMI data, US infrastructure updates<\/strong>, and OPEC+ energy signals for knock-on effects on metals demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/precious-metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Precious Metals<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Copper rallied after Codelco offered record premiums to China, hinting at a supply pivot toward US demand and reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":35377,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[79,78],"class_list":["post-35373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-base-metals","tag-copper"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}