{"id":35364,"date":"2025-11-26T15:25:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T07:25:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35364"},"modified":"2025-11-26T15:25:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T07:25:29","slug":"nikkei-extends-rebound-on-fed-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/nikkei-extends-rebound-on-fed-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Nikkei Extends Rebound on Fed Optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx-86-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20961\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Nikkei 225<\/strong> climbed <strong>1.9% to 49,673.65<\/strong>, tracking Wall Street\u2019s rebound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed cut odds<\/strong> jumped to <strong>80.7%<\/strong>, from <strong>50%<\/strong> a week ago.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weak <strong>US retail sales<\/strong> and <strong>consumer confidence<\/strong> data heightened dovish sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Nikkei 225<\/strong> rose nearly <strong>2%<\/strong> in early Wednesday trade, mirroring Wall Street\u2019s overnight gains as weaker-than-expected US economic data bolstered bets that the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> will deliver a <strong>25-basis-point rate cut<\/strong> at its December meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wall Street stocks closed up with a series of economic data appearing to support the case for the Federal Reserve to implement its third and final rate cut of the year in December <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Dp9IbitfUR\">https:\/\/t.co\/Dp9IbitfUR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FunAXVxvhV\">pic.twitter.com\/FunAXVxvhV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1993560348163817794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The rally comes after recent turbulence, with the index recouping ground from earlier losses tied to valuation concerns and rising bond yields. The move was supported by gains in cyclical and tech sectors, echoing global momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bond traders are increasingly positioned for a Fed cut in December, pushing aside doubts that dominated as recently as last week <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gkq5hfLyEk\">https:\/\/t.co\/gkq5hfLyEk<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1993434572273438788?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the <strong>CME FedWatch Tool<\/strong>, traders now assign an <strong>80.7% probability<\/strong> of a December rate cut, compared with near-even odds last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Wall Street\u2019s Momentum Lifts Asia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite<\/strong> notched their <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KPoJpHk2rU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">third consecutive daily gains<\/a><\/strong> on Tuesday, buoyed by softer <strong>retail sales<\/strong> and weakening <strong>consumer sentiment<\/strong>, which suggested slowing growth but increased the likelihood of policy easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US Treasury yields briefly dipped below <strong>4%<\/strong>, before stabilising around <strong>4.01%<\/strong>. The <strong>US dollar index (USDX)<\/strong> slipped <strong>0.2% to 99.69<\/strong>, extending its recent pullback, while Sterling advanced for a fifth straight day ahead of the UK budget announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">UK Budget Live Updates: Pound Rises Ahead of Crucial Budget (GBP\/USD) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1wpmy9606t\">https:\/\/t.co\/1wpmy9606t<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1993575713404813481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The easing dollar helped fuel risk appetite across Asian markets, with <strong>MSCI\u2019s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index<\/strong> up <strong>1.1%<\/strong>, led by gains in <strong>Australia<\/strong>, <strong>New Zealand<\/strong>, and <strong>South Korea<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">BOJ and Politics in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors also digested reports that the <strong>Bank of Japan<\/strong> is preparing markets for a potential <strong>rate hike as soon as next month<\/strong>, following a meeting between <strong>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi<\/strong> and <strong>Governor Kazuo Ueda<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Exclusive: BOJ preps markets for near-term hike as weak yen overshadows politics <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ucBI1jLnf3\">https:\/\/t.co\/ucBI1jLnf3<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ucBI1jLnf3\">https:\/\/t.co\/ucBI1jLnf3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1993557878083399724?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While yen volatility remains contained with <strong>USDJPY<\/strong> trading near <strong>156.05,<\/strong> local bond yields have risen to their highest levels since 2008. Political developments are also in play, with Takaichi\u2019s growing popularity fuelling speculation of <strong>snap elections<\/strong>, according to the <em>Yomiuri<\/em> newspaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nikkei 225 is attempting a mild rebound after several days of pressure, lifting back toward the short-term moving averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price is still trading beneath the early-November peak near 52,669, but this latest bounce shows buyers stepping back in around the 48,000 region, which has now acted as a stabilising floor twice this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader structure remains upward, although the index is clearly in a corrective phase within that larger trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-44-1024x449.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35365\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators reflect this shift. The MACD remains below the signal line and deep in negative territory, signalling that sentiment is still fragile even with today\u2019s recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the rebound to gain traction, the index needs to break above the 50,000 level and reclaim the short-term trend lines. Failure to do so risks another drift lower toward 47,000 to 46,500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the bounce is constructive but not confirmed, with the market still searching for clearer direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With <strong>Fed cut bets<\/strong> driving sentiment and <strong>US dollar weakness<\/strong> providing tailwinds, Asia\u2019s risk assets appear poised for further upside in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, upcoming <strong>OPEC+ deliberations<\/strong> and <strong>BOJ policy shifts<\/strong> may inject volatility, keeping traders alert ahead of December\u2019s pivotal central bank decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stay on top of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/today-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">market moves<\/a> on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Nikkei225 rallied as soft US data bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[11,30],"class_list":["post-35364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-indices","tag-nikkei"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}