{"id":35297,"date":"2025-11-21T11:20:14","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T03:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=35297"},"modified":"2025-11-21T11:20:14","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T03:20:14","slug":"oil-drops-as-peace-rumours-spur-supply-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-drops-as-peace-rumours-spur-supply-worry\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Drops as Peace Rumours Spur Supply Worry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil8-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41764\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> fell <strong>0.77%<\/strong> to around <strong>$58.28 per barrel<\/strong>, marking its <strong>third straight daily decline<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Peace talk speculation between <strong>Ukraine, the US, and Russia<\/strong> stoked fears of rising supply.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil<\/strong> took effect, threatening to strand up to <strong>48 million barrels at sea<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices retreated as reports surfaced that Ukrainian President <strong>Volodymyr Zelenskiy<\/strong> was open to peace discussions, with the <strong>US and Russia<\/strong> drafting a preliminary framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he has agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia \u201cin a way that would bring about a just end to the war\u201d and expects to talk with Donald Trump in the coming days <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DGolp1C9Dc\">https:\/\/t.co\/DGolp1C9Dc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1991552763130425660?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The proposal allegedly included <strong>territorial concessions<\/strong> and a partial lifting of sanctions, sparking concerns that a potential agreement could allow <strong>more Russian crude<\/strong> to enter global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While European diplomats remain doubtful that a resolution is near, even the hint of improved geopolitical conditions was enough to pressure oil benchmarks lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Sanctions Add Short-Term Volatility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, new <strong>US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil<\/strong> took effect, complicating Russian exports and stranding nearly <strong>48 million barrels<\/strong> in transit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US sanctions that come into effect on Friday could leave nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded on the water <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aocogmz0j0\">https:\/\/t.co\/aocogmz0j0<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1991641864756248924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The sanctions, intended to curb Moscow\u2019s energy revenues, have introduced short-term logistical bottlenecks. However, traders warned that if restrictions ease later, it could quickly flip the market into <strong>oversupply<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>Indian refiners<\/strong>, who have relied heavily on Russian discounts since 2022, are now scrambling for <strong>alternative supply sources<\/strong>, potentially from <strong>the Middle East and Africa<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">India\u2019s Reliance Industries Limited said it would stop processing Russian oil at part of its giant Jamnagar oil refinery as US sanctions force the company to shy away from dealings with Moscow <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oLVXbOyt10\">https:\/\/t.co\/oLVXbOyt10<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1991554648746991760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows WTI crude locked in a broad downtrend since the July peak near 78, with price now stabilising around the 58 level. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are compressed and flat, which reflects a loss of momentum and a market drifting sideways after months of lower highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 55 area continues to act as a key support floor, with several rebounds forming around this zone since May. As long as price holds above 55, the structure leans more toward consolidation than a fresh breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-34-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35298\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD remains below the zero line, signalling a weak underlying trend, but the histogram is relatively shallow, showing fading bearish pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If WTI can reclaim the 60\u201362 band, it may attempt a modest recovery toward the 30-day moving average, although sustained upside would require stronger catalysts. If the market slips back under 55, the next leg lower becomes likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, traders should watch for a clean break away from this tight consolidation, as the range is narrowing and volatility is poised to return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The near-term outlook remains fragile as the market weighs potential <strong>peace-driven supply increases<\/strong> against <strong>disruptions from sanctions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until clarity emerges from diplomatic talks, volatility is expected to remain elevated, with traders focusing on real-time export data and tanker movement reports for cues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Energies<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI fell for a third session as reports of possible Ukraine peace talks raised fears of higher Russian supply and oversupply risks. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-35297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35297\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}