Recent Economic Data and BoJ Outlook<\/p>\n
Technically, the cross is bolstered by a bullish RSI above 58.10 and remains above the 100-day EMA. Resistance at 101.75 could lead to potential rallies if surpassed, while falling below 100.00 may trigger a move towards 98.97.<\/p>\n
The Japanese Yen’s value is influenced by the country’s economic performance, BoJ policies, and the differential between Japanese and US bond yields. The Yen is also considered a safe-haven in market uncertainties, potentially increasing in value during such times.<\/p>\n
With AUD\/JPY currently around 100.85, we see a clear divergence in economic momentum that should guide strategy in the coming weeks. The Australian dollar is being supported by a strong domestic economy, while the Japanese yen is weighed down by a recent economic contraction. This fundamental split points towards continued upward pressure for the pair.<\/p>\n
Policy Divergence and Trade Strategy<\/p>\n
We must consider the latest data reinforcing this view. The Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed on November 13 that the unemployment rate held steady at a robust 4.1%, defying forecasts for an increase. This gives the Reserve Bank of Australia cover to maintain its hawkish stance, having held rates at 4.35% earlier in the month.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Japan’s economy shrank by an annualized 1.8% in the third quarter, significantly worse than expected. This has all but eliminated market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in December. This policy divergence is the primary driver and creates a tailwind for the cross.<\/p>\n
For traders, this suggests a bullish bias is appropriate while the cross remains above the 100-day EMA. Buying call options with strike prices above the 101.75 resistance could be a viable strategy to capture a potential move towards 102.30, which was the high from November 2024. The bullish RSI reading near 58.10 supports the idea that there is still room for upward momentum.<\/p>\n
However, we must manage risk around the key 100.00 psychological level. A decisive break below this support could invalidate the bullish thesis. To hedge against this, purchasing put options with a strike around 99.50 could protect against a sharp move down towards the recent November 7 low near 98.97.<\/p>\n
The broader market environment also supports a higher AUD\/JPY, as global risk sentiment is stable with the VIX index holding near a relatively low 15. This reduces the appeal of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. As long as market volatility remains subdued, this factor will continue to work against the Yen and in favour of the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY maintains bullish trend above 100-day EMA, supported by strong Australian data and weak Japanese economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17048,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35079"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35079\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}