{"id":34859,"date":"2025-11-14T10:40:04","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T02:40:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=34859"},"modified":"2025-11-14T10:40:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T02:40:04","slug":"oil-finds-support-from-sanction-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-finds-support-from-sanction-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Finds Support From Sanction Fears"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil6-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41762\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> rose <strong>2.9%<\/strong> to <strong>$60.27<\/strong>, snapping a two-week decline as U.S. sanctions on <strong>Lukoil<\/strong> raised supply-disruption fears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>IEA<\/strong> warned of a potential <strong>2.4 million bpd surplus<\/strong> this year and <strong>4 million bpd<\/strong> next, underscoring longer-term supply risks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices staged a strong recovery on Friday, with <strong>WTI crude futures<\/strong> up more than <strong>2%<\/strong> to <strong>$60.27<\/strong> per barrel. The move comes as traders brace for <strong>U.S. sanctions<\/strong> on Russian energy, set to take effect on <strong>21 November<\/strong>, which could temporarily tighten global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This oil stock finally has technical momentum on its side and is &#39;one of the best in the market,&#39; Josh Brown says <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VV6MPfId5d\">https:\/\/t.co\/VV6MPfId5d<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1989089512471814482?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Reports indicate that <strong>Lukoil PJSC<\/strong> has begun cutting staff across its global trading operations just days before the measures are implemented, an early signal that sanctions could disrupt export logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts estimate that nearly <strong>one-third of Russia\u2019s seaborne oil exports<\/strong> could face delays or be stranded in transit due to rerouting and slower port clearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Russia\u2019s seaborne crude shipments fell to the lowest in two months with declining volumes compounding lower prices to potentially deplete the Kremlin\u2019s war funding: Here\u2019s your Evening Briefing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tJKMj6E7IB\">https:\/\/t.co\/tJKMj6E7IB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1988307003257549283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation has been worsened by Russia&#8217;s two largest buyerstemporarily halting new cargo purchases amid legal and payment uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the rebound, bearish sentiment lingers. The <strong>International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong> cautioned this week that global oil supply continues to outpace demand, projecting a surplus of <strong>2.4 million barrels per day<\/strong> this year and <strong>4 million bpd<\/strong> in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">World oil market faces even larger 2026 surplus, IEA says <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/28Aqq7duUP\">https:\/\/t.co\/28Aqq7duUP<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/28Aqq7duUP\">https:\/\/t.co\/28Aqq7duUP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1989085899154497794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While consumption growth is expected to continue through <strong>2050<\/strong>, the near-term glut reflects higher production from the U.S. and OPEC members. The <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> also reported a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z2RNodVHCF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Q3 surplus<\/a><\/strong>, highlighting that recent production increases have offset disruptions elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose for a second consecutive week, amplifying short-term downside pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices have rebounded to around <strong>$60.27<\/strong>, climbing nearly <strong>2.9%<\/strong> after testing support near the <strong>$55<\/strong> zone earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The daily chart shows that momentum has turned mildly bullish in the short term, with prices reclaiming the <strong>5-day moving average<\/strong> and attempting to cross the <strong>10- and 30-day MAs<\/strong>, which could indicate an early-stage trend reversal if sustained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-17-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34860\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the <strong>MACD<\/strong> histogram has flipped slightly positive, hinting at strengthening buying pressure following weeks of consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recovery reflects improving sentiment after recent reports suggested <strong>OPEC+ may discuss deeper production cuts<\/strong> at its upcoming meeting, amid signs of <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uJPKm5PZce\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">weakening demand in China<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ypuLFjSrwK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">high inventory levels in the U.S<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, energy markets reacted positively to easing tensions in the <strong>Trump\u2013Xi trade narrative<\/strong>, which reduced fears of an immediate slowdown in global trade flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, caution remains, as the broader macro backdrop continues to point to sluggish consumption and resilient supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, traders should watch for resistance around <strong>$62.50\u2013$63.00<\/strong>, a zone that previously capped several recovery attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decisive break above this region could open the door toward <strong>$66<\/strong>, while failure to hold above <strong>$59.50<\/strong> might reintroduce downward pressure. With volatility likely to pick up ahead of next week\u2019s <strong>U.S. inflation and inventory data<\/strong>, oil may remain in a choppy but gradually strengthening phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If U.S. sanctions on <strong>Lukoil<\/strong> create measurable export delays, WTI could extend gains toward <strong>$62.00<\/strong> in the near term. However, confirmation of rising U.S. stockpiles or further IEA demand downgrades could trigger renewed selling toward <strong>$58.50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader trend remains range-bound as traders balance near-term supply disruptions against persistent oversupply signals from OPEC and the IEA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI crude climbed over 2% on Friday, ending a two-week slide as traders weighed U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports against oversupply concerns. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41762,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[5,66],"class_list":["post-34859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-commodities","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41762"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}