{"id":33931,"date":"2025-11-04T14:39:37","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:39:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=33931"},"modified":"2025-11-04T14:39:37","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T06:39:37","slug":"october-recap-and-november-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/monthly-market-insights\/october-recap-and-november-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"October Recap and November Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Ross-Maxwell_1408x768-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31502\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">October was a pivotal month for global markets, marked by a series of geopolitical and economic developments that reshaped investor sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most prominent was the <strong>ceasefire between Hamas and Israel<\/strong>, paired with <strong>fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia\u2019s two largest oil companies<\/strong>, <strong>Lukoil<\/strong> and <strong>Rosneft<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Following US and UK sanctions over the Ukraine war, Russia&#39;s second-largest oil producer Lukoil announces it will divest from global holdings <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/irsaTXdWl7\">https:\/\/t.co\/irsaTXdWl7<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dayxYLkQQf\">pic.twitter.com\/dayxYLkQQf<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1983056133393699149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move heightened pressure on Moscow as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to lose patience with Vladimir Putin and the ongoing war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere, trade tensions between <strong>the U.S. and China<\/strong> resurfaced early in the month when Trump threatened to impose <strong>100% tariffs<\/strong> on Chinese goods in response to Beijing\u2019s export controls on critical minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump was a breakthrough, according to a policy adviser to Beijing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1P4wzTykJZ\">https:\/\/t.co\/1P4wzTykJZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1985247171784884478?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 3, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the tone quickly shifted after <strong>Trump and President Xi Jinping met in Asia<\/strong>, calling the encounter a \u201c12 out of 10.\u201d The two leaders agreed to a <strong>trade framework<\/strong>, including a <strong>temporary suspension of tariffs<\/strong> and commitments for new agricultural purchases \u2014 sparking optimism across global markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the <strong>U.S. government shutdown, now extending through its fifth week,<\/strong> continues to restrict the release of crucial economic data. Despite this, the Federal Reserve proceeded with a <strong>25-basis-point rate cut<\/strong>, its first since June, while Chair Jerome Powell adopted a measured tone, stressing that future policy decisions will remain data dependent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The decision came alongside a <strong>slightly cooler inflation print<\/strong>, bolstering confidence that further easing could follow if disinflation persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In commodities, <strong>gold briefly surged above $4,000\/oz<\/strong> before recording its <strong>sharpest one-day drop in over a decade<\/strong>, while <strong>oil prices rebounded<\/strong> from yearly lows after sanctions reduced Russian supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Forex<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global growth concerns and rising safe-haven demand supported the <strong>U.S. dollar<\/strong> through much of October, although gains were capped by uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The softer CPI data increased speculation that the Fed could deliver <strong>additional cuts<\/strong>, which could later weigh on the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>euro<\/strong> weakened as the <strong>ECB<\/strong> continued to balance the difficult trade-off between supporting growth and managing inflation. After a strong 2025 performance, the <strong>EURUSD<\/strong> pair entered a mild correction phase, with traders closely monitoring upcoming <strong>inflation and labour market data<\/strong> for directional cues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"357\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33936\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 1:<\/strong><em> Four-hour EURUSD chart showing continuation of the downward channel amid sustained USD strength in October.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Gold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Gold and silver<\/strong> both climbed to record highs in October, with gold breaching the <strong>$4,000\/oz<\/strong> mark to peak around <strong>$4,380<\/strong>, while silver rallied above <strong>$50\/oz<\/strong>, hitting <strong>$54.40<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since those peaks, both metals have seen healthy corrections. Gold\u2019s sharp one-day drop on <strong>21 October<\/strong> marked its steepest decline in more than a decade. However, the <strong>core bullish fundamentals<\/strong> remain intact \u2014 lingering geopolitical risks, inflation uncertainty, and strong central bank demand continue to underpin the broader trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent pullback looks more like a <strong>technical correction and profit-taking phase<\/strong>, supported by easing tensions and a temporary return to <strong>risk-on sentiment<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"456\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33935\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 2:<\/strong><em> Four-hour gold chart showing its breakout above $4,000\/oz before retreating toward the end of the month.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices came under pressure early in October, sliding towards <strong>yearly lows near $56 per barrel<\/strong> as <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> continued to unwind production cuts and non-OPEC producers like the <strong>U.S., Brazil, and Canada<\/strong> ramped up output. Softer demand further compounded fears of <strong>oversupply<\/strong>, driving prices lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The situation reversed mid-month after the <strong>U.S. imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft<\/strong>, prompting some Asian buyers to scale back Russian oil imports for fear of secondary sanctions. This effectively <strong>reduced near-term supply<\/strong>, lifting prices off their lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, analysts expect the rebound may be <strong>short-lived<\/strong> if sanctions achieve their intended goal \u2014 bringing Russia back to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33934\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 3:<\/strong><em> Four-hour oil chart showing early-month weakness followed by a rebound on U.S. sanctions against Russian energy companies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Crypto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> experienced heightened volatility through October but remains structurally stable within its broader range. The cryptocurrency hit a <strong>new all-time high above $125,000<\/strong> early in the month, only to see a wave of derivative liquidations trigger a sharp sell-off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices have since stabilised, with improved risk sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions helping <strong>BTC<\/strong> recover towards the <strong>$115,000 zone<\/strong> from lows just below <strong>$104,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"386\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33933\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 4:<\/strong><em> Daily Bitcoin chart showing October volatility while maintaining the broader bullish structure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Indices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S. equities<\/strong> opened in October with a sharp pullback amid fears of a renewed U.S.\u2013China trade war. Sentiment quickly stabilised after Trump stated that Washington seeks to \u201cwork with China, not against it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets rallied after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that both nations had agreed to a <strong>trade deal framework<\/strong>, ahead of the expected Trump\u2013Xi meeting in South Korea. The <strong>S&amp;P 500 has since rallied to fresh record highs<\/strong> ahead of key tech earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elsewhere, <strong>European indices<\/strong> followed suit, with the <strong>FTSE<\/strong> reaching new highs, while in Asia, both the <strong>Nikkei<\/strong> and <strong>ASX<\/strong> marked record levels. China\u2019s <strong>A50 Index<\/strong> also surged to its <strong>highest point in a year<\/strong> following renewed optimism around trade negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"376\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33932\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 5:<\/strong><em> Four-hour S&amp;P 500 chart showing the initial sell-off on trade war fears and the subsequent gap-up rally after the U.S.\u2013China deal framework announcement.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Playbook: The Trader\u2019s Game Plan for November<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With <strong>U.S. indices at record highs<\/strong>, a <strong>fresh Fed rate cut<\/strong>, and <strong>easing U.S.\u2013China tensions<\/strong>, traders are entering November with renewed optimism but also elevated risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Why U.S. Indices Hit Record Highs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rally was fuelled by three converging catalysts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Monetary easing<\/strong>, as the Fed\u2019s 25 bps cut reignited liquidity hopes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade stability<\/strong>, with the Trump\u2013Xi framework removing a key overhang for risk assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Corporate earnings<\/strong>, which continued to outperform expectations, particularly in <strong>tech and banking<\/strong> sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result: stronger breadth across equities and a surge in global risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Impact of the Rate Cut<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s decision has reinforced the view that <strong>policy is turning supportive again<\/strong>, driving capital into growth-sensitive sectors such as <strong>technology, consumer discretionary, and financials<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, <strong>Powell\u2019s cautionary tone<\/strong> implies future moves will hinge on incoming data, leaving room for volatility if inflation or employment data surprise to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Strategy and Ideas<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders can look to <strong>stay long on dips<\/strong> in leading indices or <strong>rotate into sectors<\/strong> that benefit from lower rates. Growth names, high-multiple tech stocks, and interest-sensitive assets are likely to outperform if the rate-cut trajectory continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those seeking <strong>tactical exposure<\/strong> might also consider <strong>options strategies<\/strong> to capture potential upside while limiting downside in case sentiment shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Risk Awareness<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Valuations are stretched, and with optimism priced in, <strong>any data disappointment or geopolitical flare-up<\/strong> could trigger outsized reactions. Traders should monitor <strong>inflation prints<\/strong>, <strong>labour data<\/strong>, and <strong>Fed commentary<\/strong> closely for early signals of a sentiment turn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Position sizing, hedging, and selective profit-taking will be crucial to navigating elevated markets without overexposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Into November<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the month ahead, the best approach is a <strong>balanced one<\/strong>\u2014 maintain exposure to growth while managing risk proactively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Watch for follow-through on trade progress.<\/strong> If talks stall, risk assets could retrace quickly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monitor inflation and jobs data<\/strong> for clues on the Fed\u2019s next steps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Scale into strength cautiously<\/strong>, booking profits on spikes and re-entering on pullbacks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, <strong>November presents both opportunity and risk<\/strong>: a supportive policy backdrop with markets already priced for perfection. The traders who combine conviction with discipline will be best positioned for what\u2019s next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October was a pivotal month for global markets, marked by a series of geopolitical and economic developments that reshaped investor sentiment. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":31502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[32,61],"class_list":["post-33931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monthly-market-insights","tag-analysis","tag-monthly-market-insights"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"October was a pivotal month for global markets, marked by a series of geopolitical and economic developments that reshaped investor sentiment. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/monthly-market-insights\/october-recap-and-november-outlook\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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