{"id":33535,"date":"2025-10-30T10:49:38","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T02:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=33535"},"modified":"2025-10-30T10:49:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T02:49:38","slug":"dollar-steady-as-powell-tempers-cut-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-steady-as-powell-tempers-cut-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Steady as Powell Tempers Cut Hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-28T114103.832-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19471\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dollar index (USDX)<\/strong> held around <strong>98.85<\/strong>, easing slightly after Wednesday\u2019s surge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed Chair Powell<\/strong> signalled another rate cut in 2025 is not guaranteed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders trimmed rate-cut odds to <strong>below 70%<\/strong> for December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar index remained firm on Thursday, trading just below the 99 level after the Federal Reserve\u2019s quarter-point rate cut and Chair <strong>Jerome Powell\u2019s cautious comments<\/strong> prompted a reassessment of the policy outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed Outlook and Market Reaction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As expected, the Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate by <strong>25 basis points<\/strong>, bringing the target range to <strong>3.75%\u20134.00%<\/strong>. The Fed also announced that it will end its <strong>balance sheet runoff on December 1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jenniferisms?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jenniferisms<\/a> provides key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell&#39;s presser: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JebX8kmQ55\">pic.twitter.com\/JebX8kmQ55<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1983624433475391921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Powell\u2019s post-meeting remarks struck a <strong>less dovish tone<\/strong>, with the Chair highlighting <strong>policy divisions<\/strong> among members and cautioning that another cut this year was far from certain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The hawkish stance triggered a rally in the greenback late Wednesday as traders <strong>pared back rate-cut expectations<\/strong>, with money markets now pricing <strong>less than a 70% probability<\/strong> of another reduction by December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A divided US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on October 29, while Chair Jerome Powell offered a note of caution about what lies ahead <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d2bKAkqcvn\">https:\/\/t.co\/d2bKAkqcvn<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JiW9w8f4zz\">pic.twitter.com\/JiW9w8f4zz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1983696603266609544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Trade and Global Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Fed decision behind them, traders turned their focus to the <strong>Trump\u2013Xi meeting<\/strong> in South Korea later in the day, where the two leaders are expected to formalise<strong> a limited trade truce<\/strong> following months of tariffs and strained diplomatic ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are poised to finalize a trade truce when they meet in South Korea <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1DPtLJfDQv\">https:\/\/t.co\/1DPtLJfDQv<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1983634086901023024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are also watching whether any statement addresses technology export controls or Chinese rare earth exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>U.S. <\/strong><strong>Dollar<\/strong><strong> Index (USDX)<\/strong> slipped <strong>0.09%<\/strong> to <strong>98.85<\/strong>, pausing after a modest recovery seen earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The greenback continues to trade in a narrow range between <strong>98.50 and 99.00<\/strong>, reflecting trader caution ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic data and fresh commentary from Federal Reserve officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-41-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33536\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From a <strong>technical perspective<\/strong>, the dollar remains in a <strong>sideways consolidation pattern<\/strong> after rebounding from its <strong>October low of 95.82<\/strong>. The <strong>5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages<\/strong> are converging just below the 99.00 level, suggesting indecision and a lack of clear directional momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decisive breakout above <strong>99.00<\/strong> could open the way toward <strong>100.00<\/strong>, while failure to hold above <strong>98.50<\/strong> may see the index retest support near <strong>97.80<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> indicator shows neutral momentum, with both the MACD and signal lines flattening around the zero axis. The histogram\u2019s muted profile confirms that neither bulls nor bears currently hold dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, traders remain hesitant to take large positions before upcoming <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/27\/cnbc-daily-open-us-consumer-inflation-data-catalyzes-stock-rally.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">U.S. employment and inflation data<\/a><\/strong>, which could reshape <strong>rate-cut expectations for early 2026<\/strong>. Softer figures could pressure the dollar as markets price in earlier easing, while stronger readings may revive bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summary, the <strong>USDX is steady but lacks conviction<\/strong>, consolidating below the psychological <strong>99.00 resistance<\/strong>. A breakout on either side of the current range will likely define the next directional move, with market focus firmly on economic data to provide clarity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar is likely to remain range-bound ahead of <strong>Friday\u2019s US employment data<\/strong> and the outcome of the <strong>Trump\u2013Xi summit<\/strong>. While the Fed\u2019s policy stance supports a firm greenback, any signs of progress on trade or softer inflation readings could temper bullish momentum in the coming sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar steadied after Powell\u2019s hawkish tone led traders to dial back expectations for another rate cut this year. \u2013 vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":19471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-33535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33535\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}