{"id":33335,"date":"2025-10-28T17:54:39","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T09:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=33335"},"modified":"2025-10-28T17:54:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T09:54:39","slug":"oil-retreats-as-surplus-fears-weigh-on-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/oil-retreats-as-surplus-fears-weigh-on-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Retreats as Surplus Fears Weigh on Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil9-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41765\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>WTI crude<\/strong> dropped <strong>2.2% to $59.94<\/strong>, while <strong>Brent crude<\/strong> declined <strong>2.1% to $63.52<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OPEC+ may consider a <strong>modest output increase<\/strong> at its December meeting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Losses tempered by concerns over <strong>U.S. sanctions on Russian oil flows<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices fell sharply in early Tuesday trading as investors weighed the possibility of a <strong>global supply surplus<\/strong> against signs of progress in <strong>U.S.\u2013China trade negotiations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil falls as OPEC+ output plans offset US-China trade optimism <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8MyZ3VCaGD\">https:\/\/t.co\/8MyZ3VCaGD<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8MyZ3VCaGD\">https:\/\/t.co\/8MyZ3VCaGD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1983093906334990400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The initial optimism that had supported energy markets earlier this week faded as traders turned their attention to OPEC+ policy signals and the broader supply outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Supply and Policy Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Media reports suggested that <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> could discuss a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/f2zo3lYpw9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">measured output hike for December<\/a><\/strong>, a move that would add to supply pressures at a time when demand growth remains uneven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts at ING noted that \u201cthe initial positive sentiment around U.S.\u2013China trade talks faded as the oil market progressed through yesterday\u2019s trading session,\u201d as investors shifted focus to production decisions and sanctions impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, downside momentum was partially contained by uncertainty surrounding <strong>U.S. sanctions on Russia\u2019s largest oil producers<\/strong>, which have disrupted global supply flows and limited access to Western shipping and insurance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Following US and UK sanctions over the Ukraine war, Russia&#39;s second-largest oil producer Lukoil announces it will divest from global holdings <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/irsaTXdWl7\">https:\/\/t.co\/irsaTXdWl7<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dayxYLkQQf\">pic.twitter.com\/dayxYLkQQf<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1983056133393699149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 28, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The longer-term impact remains unclear, but markets expect some tightening in crude availability once sanctions fully take effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil (<strong>WTI<\/strong>) extended its pullback on Tuesday, slipping <strong>2.06%<\/strong> to <strong>$60.25<\/strong> as traders reassessed demand expectations amid mixed global data and rising inventory levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decline snapped a brief recovery attempt seen earlier in the week, reinforcing concerns that the market remains vulnerable to economic softness and oversupply pressures heading into the year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a <strong>technical standpoint<\/strong>, oil remains in a <strong>broad downtrend<\/strong>, with price action consistently capped by the <strong>30-day moving average<\/strong> near <strong>$63.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-39-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33336\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the recent bounce from October\u2019s low of <strong>$55.11<\/strong>, the inability to sustain momentum above short-term resistance has kept the broader tone bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate support lies at <strong>$59.00\u201358.50<\/strong>, a zone that, if breached, could expose the next downside target around <strong>$55.00, <\/strong>a key historical floor from April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD indicator<\/strong> still reflects lingering weakness. While the histogram had briefly turned positive earlier this week, momentum has already started to fade, with the MACD line flattening below zero. This signals that buying interest remains limited and that the recent rally may have been corrective rather than the start of a new uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamentally, sentiment is weighed down by <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gRRYLAbFME\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">rising U.S. crude inventories<\/a><\/strong> and concerns that <strong>slower economic growth in Europe and China<\/strong> could cap fuel demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>OPEC+\u2019s production discipline<\/strong> has so far failed to offset non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the U.S. and Brazil, further undermining prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the trend bias remains <strong>bearish below $63.00<\/strong>, with the market likely to consolidate between <strong>$55.00 and $63.00<\/strong> in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decisive move above $63.00 would be required to signal a shift in momentum, while a break below $58.50 could accelerate downside pressure toward the <strong>$55.00<\/strong> level once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil prices fell over 2% on Tuesday as traders reassessed the balance between progress in U.S.\u2013China trade talks and sanctions on Russian exports. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-33335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}