{"id":32277,"date":"2025-10-15T15:23:39","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T07:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=32277"},"modified":"2025-10-15T15:23:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T07:23:39","slug":"dollar-slips-as-powell-signals-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-slips-as-powell-signals-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Slips as Powell Signals Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/usd5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16972\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX slipped to 98.77, its lowest in nearly a week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Powell\u2019s remarks fuel expectations of a rate cut at the October 29 Fed meeting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US dollar<\/strong> fell to its lowest level in almost a week on Wednesday, retreating to around <strong>98.77<\/strong> against a basket of major currencies as markets digested <strong>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s<\/strong> dovish comments and escalating <strong>US-China trade frictions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking at a conference in <strong>Philadelphia<\/strong>, Powell cautioned that the <strong>US labour market<\/strong> faces \u201csignificant downside risks,\u201d a comment traders interpreted as a signal the Fed may be ready to support another <strong>interest rate cut<\/strong> at its upcoming <strong>October 29 policy meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate cut later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r2woKZR9AN\">https:\/\/t.co\/r2woKZR9AN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1978177228249657507?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Our research desk noted that the tone of Powell\u2019s speech aligned with the recent softening in US economic data, reinforcing expectations of a near-term policy adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures markets are now pricing in a high probability of a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0trgxvPEGn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">25-basis-point rate cut<\/a><\/strong>, extending the dollar\u2019s pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Trade Tensions Resurface<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Adding further pressure on the greenback, <strong>President Donald Trump<\/strong> threatened to terminate certain trade ties with <strong>China<\/strong>, including exports related to <strong>cooking oil<\/strong>, in retaliation for Beijing\u2019s continued refusal to purchase <strong>US soybeans<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump threatens China with cooking oil embargo over soybean snub <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2FyH6uZdtU\">https:\/\/t.co\/2FyH6uZdtU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/1978188960858816594?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The comments reignited market anxiety over the durability of bilateral trade relations between the world\u2019s two largest economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The combination of dovish monetary expectations and trade uncertainty led traders to <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wRmP4F28ng\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">trim dollar exposure<\/a>, supporting currencies such as the <strong>euro<\/strong> and <strong>yen<\/strong>, while gold edged higher on renewed safe-haven demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> is trading at <strong>98.48<\/strong>, down <strong>0.32%<\/strong> on the day, as investors reassess the Federal Reserve\u2019s rate outlook following a softer round of U.S. inflation and retail sales data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pullback suggests mild profit-taking after the index\u2019s recent rebound from the <strong>95.80<\/strong> support region, while market sentiment shifts cautiously ahead of upcoming Fed speeches and macro data releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a <strong>technical standpoint<\/strong>, the dollar index remains in a <strong>fragile recovery phase<\/strong>. After bottoming near <strong>95.82<\/strong> in late September, the USDX climbed steadily but has yet to reclaim its <strong>100.00<\/strong> resistance zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-18-1024x455.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32279\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest rejection near <strong>99.00\u201399.20<\/strong> signals a potential short-term pause in momentum. The index is currently hovering around the <strong>30-day moving average<\/strong>, while the <strong>5- and 10-day MAs<\/strong> are showing signs of convergence \u2014 a possible indicator of consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> reflects waning bullish momentum, with the histogram narrowing and the signal line flattening. A crossover below the MACD line would confirm a renewed bearish shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate <strong>support<\/strong> lies at <strong>97.80<\/strong>, followed by <strong>96.50<\/strong>, while <strong>resistance<\/strong> remains capped at <strong>99.50\u2013100.00<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the <strong>fundamental front<\/strong>, easing U.S. CPI figures have tempered expectations for further Fed tightening, while geopolitical jitters and uneven global growth are keeping safe-haven demand for the dollar in check. Meanwhile, stronger performances from European and Asian currencies have contributed to mild downside pressure on the greenback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The outlook for the dollar appears cautiously bearish as traders anticipate <strong>policy easing<\/strong> and watch for developments in the <strong>US-China trade dispute<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While short-term volatility may persist, the trend bias has shifted modestly in favour of risk assets and non-dollar currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar weakened to a near one-week low after Fed Chair Powell hinted at additional rate cuts, while renewed US-China tensions weighed on sentiment. -vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-32277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32277"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32277\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}