China’s trade balance in September registered a decrease, dipping from CNY 732.7 billion to CNY 645.47 billion. Despite solid exports, the trade surplus narrowed.<\/p>\n
Japanese Yen continues to be affected by political instability and ongoing risk-on sentiment. The USD\/INR saw a slight decline, potentially due to anticipated market intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.<\/p>\n
The NZD\/USD is gaining traction, approaching 0.5750, possibly due to hopes of a compromise in the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, the AUD\/USD remains near 0.6550 following new data from China\u2019s trade balance.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD is stable, trading above 1.1600 amidst increased US-China trade tension. The GBP\/USD has weakened below 1.3350, facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar despite Trump’s tariff threats on China.<\/p>\n
Gold reached record highs, continuing its upward momentum amid US-China trade tensions. It holds within a rising channel, with more upside potential indicated.<\/p>\n
PancakeSwap, Aster, and SPX6900 recorded significant recoveries, gaining over 20% after a market sell-off. Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced its largest drop since 2025 due to Trump’s fresh tariff threats on China, briefly losing nearly 10%.<\/p>\n
The recent threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese software has injected extreme volatility into markets, a sentiment confirmed by the massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies we saw last Friday. For us, this signals a clear risk-off environment heading into the coming weeks. We must prepare for sharp, headline-driven price swings.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s narrowing trade surplus, which fell to 645.47B CNY, is a concerning signal for global growth and directly pressures commodity currencies. Looking back, we saw similar pressures during the 2018-2019 trade disputes, which consistently weakened the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Therefore, buying puts on AUD\/USD seems like a prudent hedge against further negative trade news.<\/p>\n
In this environment, gold is acting as the ultimate safe haven, pushing past $3,950 to new records. This continues the powerful uptrend that began after it decisively broke the old 2024 highs of around $2,150. Traders should consider buying call options on gold-backed ETFs to gain upside exposure while limiting risk.<\/p>\n
The market’s fear is palpable, and we expect the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to remain highly elevated, likely above the 25-30 range we saw during previous tariff escalations in 2019. This makes long volatility strategies, such as buying straddles on the S&P 500, attractive for capturing large moves regardless of direction. It is a direct play on the ongoing uncertainty from the US government shutdown and trade disputes.<\/p>\n
The specific threat against “critical software” puts the technology sector directly in the crosshairs. We should anticipate significant underperformance in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100. Protective puts or even speculative short positions via futures on the Nasdaq could be considered to guard against a sharp downturn.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" China\u2019s trade surplus narrows; global currencies fluctuate; gold surges; crypto markets recover after sharp sell-off.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32030\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}