{"id":31396,"date":"2025-10-01T04:39:42","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T04:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31396"},"modified":"2025-10-01T04:39:42","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T04:39:42","slug":"kiwi-struggles-as-markets-eye-rbnz-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/kiwi-struggles-as-markets-eye-rbnz-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiwi Struggles as Markets Eye RBNZ Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-2025-10-01T123703538-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31398\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NZDUSD held around $0.579, near last week\u2019s six-month low of $0.578.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price in a 25bps RBNZ cut next week, with a 35% chance of a deeper 50bps move.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar hovered near $0.579 on Wednesday, consolidating after modest gains as the U.S. dollar softened on fears of a looming government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risk of closure in Washington is fuelling uncertainty, with traders wary that key economic data, particularly the potential delay of September\u2019s non-farm payrolls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US lurched toward a government shutdown as a vote to extend funding past a midnight deadline failed in the US Senate and President Donald Trump threatened to extend his purge of the federal workforce <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YbSWgzYVmZ\">https:\/\/t.co\/YbSWgzYVmZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1973202470223392795?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a disruption would complicate the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy signals ahead of its late-October meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the brief reprieve from U.S. dollar weakness, the kiwi remains under pressure and trades close to last week\u2019s six-month low of $0.578.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The currency continues to feel the weight of policy expectations at home, with markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at next week\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">New Zealand\u2019s central bank has learned lessons from the post-pandemic bout of fast inflation and is now better placed to respond to future shocks, chief economist Paul Conway said <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wAejIQWBTj\">https:\/\/t.co\/wAejIQWBTj<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1972452856549576936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures markets also suggest a 35% probability of a larger 50-basis-point reduction, underscoring investor scepticism over the economy\u2019s resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Domestic Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest ANZ Bank business outlook survey <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/A6pTqPHP6B\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">offered mixed signals<\/a>. While headline business confidence held steady in September, a net 50% of firms expect better conditions ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the optimism contrasts with sluggish underlying growth, leaving the RBNZ under pressure to act decisively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar (<strong>NZDUSD<\/strong>) continues to struggle, trading at <strong>0.57897<\/strong>, down <strong>0.06%<\/strong>, with price action leaning bearish as the pair slips further below the <strong>0.58 handle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kiwi is being weighed down by persistent USD resilience and weaker demand for risk assets, while domestic economic headwinds and RBNZ\u2019s cautious stance limit upside potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has clearly broken below its <strong>30-day moving average<\/strong>, with the <strong>5- and 10-day averages<\/strong> trending lower, signaling strong downward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-1-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31397\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The last major swing high was at <strong>0.6120<\/strong> in July, and since then the pair has been in a steady decline. Immediate support sits at <strong>0.5750<\/strong>, with further downside risk extending toward the <strong>April low near 0.5487<\/strong> if bearish pressure persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum indicators confirm the bearish trend. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> is deeply in negative territory, with the MACD line staying below the signal line and widening, showing accelerating downside momentum. The histogram also supports this bias with persistent red bars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, the Kiwi is likely to remain under pressure unless risk sentiment improves or <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GLIPBp9Mxk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S. yields retreat<\/a>. A sustained recovery above <strong>0.5850<\/strong> would be needed to ease the downside bias, but until then, rallies are likely to be capped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New Zealand dollar traded near $0.579 on Wednesday, holding modest gains as U.S. shutdown fears hit the greenback. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":31398,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10,72],"class_list":["post-31396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex","tag-kiwi"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31396\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}