{"id":31254,"date":"2025-09-26T06:43:19","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T06:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31254"},"modified":"2025-09-26T06:43:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T06:43:19","slug":"usdx-extends-weekly-gains-to-strong-us-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/usdx-extends-weekly-gains-to-strong-us-data\/","title":{"rendered":"USDX Extends Weekly Gains to Strong US Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-14T113836.526-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18366\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Dollar Index eased 0.1% to 98.37 after a 0.6% surge, on track for a 0.8% weekly gain, the strongest since early August.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% from 3.3%, while Fed cut odds for 50 bps by December slipped to 60% from 82% a week ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dollar Index (USDX) consolidated around 98.37 on Friday, trimming a 0.6% gain in the prior session but still eyeing a 0.8% advance for the week. That would mark its steepest rise since the week ending 1 August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rebound follows a run of stronger-than-expected economic data that has dampened the urgency for deeper Federal Reserve cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said interest rates remain modestly restrictive after last month\u2019s quarter-point cut <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gKAsyqKzxJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/gKAsyqKzxJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1971312875642733039?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Commerce Department revised US GDP growth for the second quarter to 3.8%, up from 3.3%, well above economists\u2019 expectations of no change. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1EOPcrfwxV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Stronger jobless claims<\/a> supported this alongside durable goods orders and wholesale inventories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, traders have scaled back bets on larger Fed moves. CME\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">FedWatch Tool<\/a> now shows a 60% probability of a 50 basis point cut by December, down sharply from 82% one week earlier. With growth and labour resilience intact, the case for deep easing looks less convincing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Inflation in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets now turn to the release of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">PCE price index<\/a>, the Fed\u2019s preferred gauge of inflation. Consensus expects a 0.3% monthly rise for August and a 2.7% annual increase. Core measures are anticipated closer to 2.9% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A firmer outcome would underline the Fed\u2019s cautious stance, keeping pressure on rate-cut bets. Conversely, a soft print could revive expectations for larger policy adjustments before year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong> is trading at <strong>98.026<\/strong>, down <strong>0.08%<\/strong> on the day, showing continued struggle to build momentum after its recent bounce from <strong>95.819<\/strong>, the lowest level since March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader trend remains bearish, with the index still capped under the <strong>100.00 psychological resistance<\/strong> and well below the March peak of <strong>107.57<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price action has been consolidating in a tight band between <strong>96.00 and 99.00<\/strong>, reflecting indecision as traders weigh Fed policy expectations against global demand for the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-29-1024x458.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31255\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Moving averages (5, 10, 30) suggest caution: short-term lines are beginning to flatten, hinting at consolidation, while the longer-term downtrend remains intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> has crossed above the signal line, which could support further short-term recovery attempts, but the histogram shows limited strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the immediate outlook, <strong>98.50\u201399.00<\/strong> serves as near-term resistance, while <strong>97.50<\/strong> and <strong>96.00<\/strong> remain important supports. A decisive break below <strong>96.00<\/strong> could reopen the path to March lows, while a close above <strong>99.00<\/strong> may invite a stronger corrective rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If August PCE inflation confirms the 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annual projections, the Dollar Index is likely to trade in a higher range, with scope to retest 99.20. Any upside surprise in inflation would further reduce cut expectations and extend the rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, should inflation come in softer than forecast, the USDX may retrace toward 97.40 before buyers re-emerge, leaving the broader uptrend intact as long as 96.00 holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX steadied near 98.37 after upbeat US GDP and labour data trimmed expectations for aggressive Fed cuts. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":18366,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-31254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31254\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}