{"id":31222,"date":"2025-09-24T08:23:50","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T08:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31222"},"modified":"2025-09-24T08:23:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T08:23:50","slug":"crude-oil-edges-up-on-supply-tightness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/crude-oil-edges-up-on-supply-tightness\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Edges Up on Supply Tightness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Oil9-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41765\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI crude rose to $63.62, while Brent edged up to $67.82 per barrel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>API reported a 3.82M barrel draw in US crude inventories last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kurdish oil exports remain suspended as Iraq demands repayment guarantees.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil markets continued their upward grind on Wednesday, with <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> rising 0.3% to <strong>$63.62<\/strong> and <strong>Brent<\/strong> climbing 0.3% to <strong>$67.82<\/strong>, marking the second straight day of gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rally comes as a combination of supply-side constraints and geopolitical friction tighten the near-term outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil extends gains as data shows US crude stockpile drop <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3GdcGzP01X\">https:\/\/t.co\/3GdcGzP01X<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3GdcGzP01X\">https:\/\/t.co\/3GdcGzP01X<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1970714937904312693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest <strong>American Petroleum Institute (API)<\/strong> report revealed a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/oil-rises-us-crude-stockpile-drop-adds-sense-tighter-supply-2025-09-24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">3.82 million barrel drop<\/a><\/strong> in US crude stocks last week, adding bullish sentiment to an already supply-constrained market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gasoline stocks also fell by over 1 million barrels, even as distillates saw a modest build. The official <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/opendata\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">EIA data<\/a><\/strong> is expected to be released later today and will provide firmer direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Compounding the bullish tone was news that <strong>efforts to resume oil exports from Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan region have stalled<\/strong>. Despite initial optimism, key producers are withholding exports of roughly <strong>230,000 bpd <\/strong>until <strong>guarantees on debt repayment<\/strong> are met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iraq Kurdish oil exports yet to flow as two producers seek debt guarantees <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M9sIQegQJx\">https:\/\/t.co\/M9sIQegQJx<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M9sIQegQJx\">https:\/\/t.co\/M9sIQegQJx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1970609200679055759?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pipeline to Turkey has been shut since March 2023, and this fresh impasse adds to ongoing global supply fragility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additional concerns came from Venezuela, where <strong>Chevron<\/strong> confirmed that it will <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iLMwfSsa9P\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">only be able to export half of its 240,000 bpd<\/a><\/strong> quota due to new restrictions, limiting the flow of heavy crude into the US market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Crude oil (CL-OIL) is trading at <strong>$63.61<\/strong>, down <strong>0.03%<\/strong> on the day, showing continued consolidation after a volatile year. Prices fell sharply to a low of <strong>$55.11<\/strong> in April, before surging to <strong>$77.90<\/strong> in July, only to retrace back into the low-to-mid 60s range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are compressed and flat, suggesting a lack of clear momentum. The MACD histogram is hovering around the zero line, confirming neutral momentum and the absence of a decisive trend. This signals that oil is stuck in a sideways market, waiting for a catalyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-26-1024x453.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31223\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immediate support lies around <strong>$61.50\u201362.00<\/strong>, a zone that has held multiple times. A break below could reopen the path toward the <strong>$59.00<\/strong> handle. On the upside, resistance sits at <strong>$66.50<\/strong>, followed by the more significant <strong>$70.00<\/strong> level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, oil is consolidating within a tight range, with traders watching whether macroeconomic cues\u2014such as US inventory data or OPEC+ policy\u2014will drive the next breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices are likely to remain <strong>range-bound between $59\u2013$68<\/strong> in the near term, supported by supply disruptions but capped by broader macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly around the US Fed&#8217;s next interest rate move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As long as Kurdistan&#8217;s exports remain blocked and Venezuelan output is constrained, the downside risk appears limited. However, traders are awaiting confirmation from US government inventory data before committing to any breakout positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude oil prices edged higher for a second straight session, buoyed by falling US inventories and stalled Iraqi Kurdistan exports. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":41765,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-31222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crude oil prices edged higher for a second straight session, buoyed by falling US inventories and stalled Iraqi Kurdistan exports. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/crude-oil-edges-up-on-supply-tightness\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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