{"id":31193,"date":"2025-09-22T10:40:52","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T10:40:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=31193"},"modified":"2025-09-22T10:40:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T10:40:52","slug":"euro-steadies-as-ecb-holds-hawkish-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/euro-steadies-as-ecb-holds-hawkish-line\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Steadies as ECB Holds Hawkish Line"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-73-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16895\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD trades at 1.17701, up 0.22%, holding near last week\u2019s four-year high of 1.192.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ECB officials suggest rate cuts may be done, citing persistent inflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed cut rates last week and hinted at another 50bps of easing this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro held steady above $1.17 on Monday, with EUR\/USD trading at 1.17701\u2014just below last week\u2019s peak of 1.192, a level not seen in four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pair is being buoyed by diverging tones from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, with the ECB signalling caution on future easing while the Fed moves steadily toward more cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In its latest commentary, the ECB indicated that its rate-cutting cycle may be at an end, warning that inflationary pressures remain elevated due to structural costs like tariffs, food prices, services, and expansionary fiscal policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ECB officials are anxiously awaiting the next edition of their economic forecasts \u2014 due in December \u2014 that will help them decide whether interest rates are low enough to sustainably deliver inflation of 2% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CblHP9MtvV\">https:\/\/t.co\/CblHP9MtvV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1969743051275858209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 21, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This hawkish tone, echoed by several board members in recent speeches, has helped support the euro despite global risk headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week for the first time since December and suggested it could deliver another 50 basis points in cuts by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Mortgage rates ticked up after the central bank delivered its widely expected 25 basis point cut.<br><br>However, Fed Chair Powell cautioned that \u201cthere is no risk-free path\u201d as the Fed tries to navigate a weakening labor market and relatively hot inflation. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2gGpYI0xUV\">https:\/\/t.co\/2gGpYI0xUV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1970065595577049311?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 22, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair Jerome Powell, however, described the move as a \u201crisk management\u201d step, not the start of an aggressive easing cycle\u2014an important nuance that has helped limit dollar weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Macro Calendar in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will closely watch the upcoming HCOB Flash PMI data from the eurozone, expected to provide a real-time snapshot of economic activity in services and manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US, UK and eurozone data headline the week as world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly set to be dominated by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and rising nuclear tensions with Iran <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NY0W73SI5c\">https:\/\/t.co\/NY0W73SI5c<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/U04hsKFcEX\">pic.twitter.com\/U04hsKFcEX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1969179698854052350?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 19, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A surprise to the upside could further reinforce the ECB\u2019s case for holding rates, while a weak print could revive dovish speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monetary aggregates and scheduled speeches from key ECB and Fed officials will also be scrutinised for signs of shifting tone\u2014especially as inflation remains above target in both regions and policymakers attempt to manage softening growth without overcommitting to stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>EURUSD is trading at <strong>1.1770<\/strong>, up <strong>0.22%<\/strong> on the day, extending its recent breakout momentum. Since bottoming at <strong>1.0360<\/strong> in March, the pair has been in a well-structured uptrend, with the 30-day moving average continuing to act as dynamic support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-23-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-31194\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The current push above the <strong>1.1750\u20131.1770<\/strong> zone suggests that bulls are regaining control after weeks of sideways consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator is tilting bullish again, with the signal line rising above the zero mark, pointing to strengthening momentum. If buyers can sustain pressure, the next target lies at <strong>1.1850<\/strong>, followed by a potential move toward <strong>1.2000<\/strong> psychological resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, immediate support sits around <strong>1.1650<\/strong>, with stronger backing near <strong>1.1500<\/strong>, where moving averages converge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The technical bias remains bullish as long as EURUSD holds above 1.1650, but a failure to clear 1.1850 could see a pullback before further upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, EUR\/USD may continue to grind higher toward 1.1800\u20131.1850 if data out of the eurozone holds steady and ECB rhetoric remains firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the market\u2019s next leg will likely be driven by US macro data and further rate commentary from Powell and peers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium term, the euro may remain supported as long as the Fed keeps easing and the ECB avoids opening the door to cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, if European growth weakens or core inflation starts to fade, the market could begin pricing in ECB easing by early 2026\u2014limiting further gains beyond the 1.2000 region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD trades near multi-year highs as the European Central Bank signals its rate cycle may be complete, while the Fed opens the door to further cuts. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16895,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,56,10],"class_list":["post-31193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31193\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}