{"id":30994,"date":"2025-09-18T03:41:29","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T03:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30994"},"modified":"2025-09-18T03:41:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T03:41:29","slug":"aussie-dollar-cools-as-labour-market-softens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-cools-as-labour-market-softens\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Cools as Labour Market Softens"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/aussie2-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16960\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD is trading at 0.66498, down 0.03%, after Australian jobs data disappointed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>August employment fell by 5,400, versus a forecast gain of 21,500.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, but participation dipped to 66.8%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market sees a 20% chance of a September RBA cut, rising to 70% by November.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday, holding just below 0.665 after a weaker-than-expected jobs report shook confidence in the labour market\u2019s resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australian unemployment held steady last month even as the economy shed jobs with fewer people looking for work, signaling the labor market remains tight and reinforcing the Reserve Bank\u2019s cautious approach to policy easing <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/loOarA9LvY\">https:\/\/t.co\/loOarA9LvY<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1968493954950672878?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Net employment fell by 5,400 in August, well below the consensus forecast for a 21,500 gain. The drag came almost entirely from full-time employment, which dropped by 40,900 positions\u2014a worrying signal that underlying momentum may be stalling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, the participation rate slipped to 66.8%, indicating a marginal reduction in the number of people actively seeking work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taken together, the data paints a picture of a labour market that is losing steam, albeit slowly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the miss, the market still sees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) standing pat in September, with just a 20% chance of a rate cut priced in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia\u2019s central bank is \u201cpretty close\u201d to getting inflation back to the midpoint of its 2-3% target while the economy is near full employment, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter says <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZxzwlKrHiT\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZxzwlKrHiT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1967821452305916137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 16, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That number, however, jumps to 70% for the November meeting, as inflation remains above target and policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Fed&#8217;s Measured Tone Adds Global Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, the Federal Reserve followed through with a widely expected 25-basis-point cut but signalled only two more this year and a single cut in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair Jerome Powell emphasised a \u201crisk management\u201d approach, opting to avoid rushing into further easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell rallied a deeply divided committee of policymakers behind an interest rate-cut, tuning out heavy political pressure to find middle ground among officials variously worried by a faltering labor market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ln9xH4JSYL\">https:\/\/t.co\/ln9xH4JSYL<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1968461991502082501?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Aussie, the Fed\u2019s stance means global yield differentials may narrow more slowly than anticipated. That removes one potential tailwind for the currency, especially if the RBA moves to cut ahead of the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar (<strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong>) is trading at <strong>0.66498<\/strong>, showing a minor dip of <strong>0.03%<\/strong>, but overall momentum remains bullish. Since rebounding from the April low of <strong>0.59214<\/strong>, the pair has been in a steady uptrend, supported by higher lows and consistent buying pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent breakout above the <strong>0.6600<\/strong> handle has pushed the currency towards its next resistance near <strong>0.6650\u20130.6700<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-19-1024x449.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30995\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From a technical standpoint, price action is well-supported by the moving averages, which continue to slope upward. The <strong>MACD<\/strong> remains in bullish territory, with the histogram showing rising momentum, suggesting buyers are still in control despite today\u2019s slight pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at <strong>0.6700<\/strong>, and a decisive break above this level could extend gains towards <strong>0.6800<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, initial support lies at <strong>0.6500<\/strong>, with stronger protection around <strong>0.6400<\/strong>. Unless the pair falls back below these zones, the broader outlook remains constructive for further upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, AUD\/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.6600 and 0.6660 as traders reassess RBA and Fed dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained break above 0.6655 could push the pair toward 0.6700, but that may require either a soft US data print or a more dovish tone from Australian policymakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the medium term, odds favour moderate upside, particularly if the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vW8gsiaPBi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">RBA delays cuts<\/a> and global risk sentiment holds steady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a deterioration in labour data or falling commodity prices could quickly shift the narrative, pulling the Aussie back below 0.6550.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD cools after weak labour data dent optimism. Markets lower expectations for a September rate cut but lean toward easing in November. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[73,9,10],"class_list":["post-30994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aud","tag-dollar","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30994"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30994\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}