{"id":30925,"date":"2025-09-17T09:42:57","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T09:42:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30925"},"modified":"2025-09-17T09:42:57","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T09:42:57","slug":"sterling-steady-as-uk-inflation-holds-the-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/sterling-steady-as-uk-inflation-holds-the-line\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterling Steady as UK Inflation Holds the Line"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/gbp7-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17037\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>GBP\/USD is trading around 1.3646 after hitting its highest level since July.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK annual inflation came in at 3.8% for August, matching forecasts and easing pressure on the BoE.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 4% this week, while the Fed is set to cut by 25bps.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling held its ground on Wednesday as the UK\u2019s latest inflation report offered few surprises and little incentive for the Bank of England to adjust its current stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GBP\/USD traded around 1.3646 as of midday, flat on the day, after touching its highest level since early July during Tuesday\u2019s session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Office for National Statistics reported that annual inflation stood at 3.8% in August, perfectly in line with the Reuters poll median.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">British inflation held at 3.8% in August, the highest of any major advanced economy, according to official figures that underscore why investors believe the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LnaXtbNZMU\">https:\/\/t.co\/LnaXtbNZMU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1968218099976413604?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 17, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The release corrected some of the upside surprise from July, but inflation remains elevated and well above the BoE\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With this context, policymakers are expected to keep <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ng9JmM9SPb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">interest rates steady at 4% <\/a>when they meet on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists still expect one cut before year-end, but the timing remains unclear, particularly given persistent price pressures in core components of the CPI basket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Watches for Fed Cut and Global Divergence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader FX market is now focused on the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GaktCH2JBT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">US Federal Reserve<\/a>, which is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points later today. That would bring the federal funds rate down to the 4.00%\u20134.25% range and mark a widening divergence between US and UK monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This divergence is key to the pound\u2019s strength. As the Fed shifts into easing mode and the BoE stays pat, GBP\/USD is finding steady upward traction, especially against a broadly weaker US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7GWwaNOLvS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">European Central Bank<\/a> has also opted to hold rates steady, further highlighting the desynchronisation in policy moves among major central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling also edged higher against the euro, with EUR\/GBP slipping 0.07% to 86.89 pence. Deutsche Bank\u2019s Sanjay Raja noted that while August\u2019s UK inflation print offered relief, \u201cCPI may have a little further to go before hitting its peak,\u201d reinforcing the BoE\u2019s cautious stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sterling (<strong>GBP\/USD<\/strong>) is holding steady at <strong>1.3646<\/strong>, flat on the day, but pushing against a key resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-17-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30926\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows the pair climbing from its March low at <strong>1.2546<\/strong>, topping out at <strong>1.3789<\/strong> in July, and now consolidating in the <strong>1.35\u20131.37<\/strong> band.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The moving averages (5,10,30) are starting to align to the upside, while the <strong>MACD<\/strong> is crossing into positive territory, hinting at growing bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate resistance sits at <strong>1.3650\u20131.3780<\/strong>, while support is layered at <strong>1.3500<\/strong> and further down near <strong>1.31<\/strong>. A breakout above 1.3780 could open the path toward 1.40, but failure to hold above 1.35 risks another pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, GBP\/USD is expected to hover between 1.3600 and 1.3750 as traders digest the Fed\u2019s decision and BoE\u2019s tone. If the Fed confirms a 25bps cut and delivers a dovish outlook, GBP\/USD could gain further ground and attempt a retest of the 1.3788 high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A hawkish surprise, however, could spark a temporary pullback to the 1.3500\u20131.3550 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking into the medium term, with the BoE on hold and the Fed entering an easing cycle, the pound may continue to benefit from the yield gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, inflation persistence in the UK could cap any aggressive upside, especially if growth data disappoints in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*d96fp5*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTczOTYxNzckbzgzJGcwJHQxNzU3Mzk2MTc3JGo2MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTczODczODQkbzE4MyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTczODczODQkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTczODczODUkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTczODczODYkbzEzMSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEzMCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTczODczODgkbzEyOSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OCRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTczODczODkkbzEyNSRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM4OSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyNCRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTczODczOTEkbzEyMyRnMCR0MTc1NzM4NzM5MSRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GBP\/USD hovers near 1.3640 after UK inflation prints in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":17037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,10,58],"class_list":["post-30925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-forex","tag-pound"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30925\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}