The USD experienced a rise following better-than-expected retail sales, though it later surrendered some of those gains. Current attention is on the FOMC rate decision, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated. There’s speculation concerning if a 50 basis point cut could be advocated by board members Miran, Bowman, and Waller.<\/p>\n
The EURUSD depreciated earlier, testing the high of a crucial support level at 1.1788, which encouraged dip buyers to act. Subsequently, the pair rebounded above 1.1800, maintaining an upward trend. Traders are watching the July 1 high of 1.18289, as surpassing this would mark the pair’s highest level since September 2021, potentially leading to sustained momentum.<\/p>\n
The USDCHF saw a drop of -0.53% for the day, initially attempting a rise after data release but was halted at the resistance between 0.7910 and 0.79209. Sellers moved against this ceiling, causing a retreat below the zone, shifting focus to the 0.7900 level from July 3. Falling below this would target the 2025 low of 0.7871, a significant point last reached in 2011.<\/p>\n
The USDCAD is down, failing to maintain a rebound post-retail sales, against its 100-day moving average at 1.37626. Currently near 1.3750, the pair faces a crucial area between 1.3743 and 1.3759. A breach below this would deepen the bearish outlook, targeting 1.3719 next.<\/p>\n
With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision imminent, we see significant event risk on the table. August 2025’s Core PCE inflation data came in softer than anticipated at 2.9%, bolstering the case for the expected 25 basis point cut. Traders should consider using options to hedge against the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, which would accelerate the dollar’s recent decline.<\/p>\n
For EURUSD, the critical level to watch is the July 1 high of 1.18289. Given that Eurozone manufacturing PMIs showed a slight improvement last month, there’s a fundamental reason to believe a breakout is possible. A strategy of buying call options with a strike price just above this level could capitalize on a potential surge toward the 1.2000 mark for the first time since 2021.<\/p>\n
The pronounced weakness in USDCHF presents a clear bearish opportunity as it tests levels not seen since the major currency shifts of 2011. The pair is approaching its 2025 low of 0.7871, a break of which would be historically significant. We see value in purchasing put options to profit from a move through this major long-term support, especially if the FOMC delivers a dovish message.<\/p>\n
In the case of USDCAD, the failure at the 100-day moving average confirms sellers are in control. The Canadian dollar is receiving support from WTI crude oil prices, which have remained consistently above $88 per barrel throughout September 2025. This backdrop reinforces the bearish outlook for the pair, making strategies like bear put spreads attractive to target a move toward the 1.3719 level.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD rises on strong retail data; markets eye FOMC decision, EURUSD rebounds, USDCHF and USDCAD weaken.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}