The US Senate is set to hold a confirmation vote on Monday for Stephen Miran, President Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Board. Miran is poised to replace Kugler, who recently resigned from the position.<\/p>\n
It is anticipated that Miran will be approved along party lines, enabling him to attend the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 16-17 September. A 25 basis point rate cut is generally expected, irrespective of Miran’s participation in the meeting.<\/p>\n
The upcoming Senate session on Monday will involve substantial voting activity. Republicans recently implemented the “nuclear option” to alter Senate rules, speeding up the confirmation process for President Trump’s executive branch nominees.<\/p>\n
The adjustment permits the Senate to confirm an unlimited number of nominees en bloc instead of individually. This change was effected by a 53-45 vote, streamlining the confirmation process under the new regulations.<\/p>\n
With Stephen Miran’s confirmation vote set for Monday, the immediate market reaction should be limited. A 25 basis point rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting is already fully priced in, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing over a 90% probability. For traders, the focus is not on the cut itself, but on the forward guidance and the dot plot that will be released with the statement.<\/p>\n
The real play is on the longer-term rate path now that Miran is joining the board. His appointment is seen as adding a distinctly dovish voice, increasing the odds of further easing before the end of the year. We are already seeing this reflected in SOFR futures, where contracts for December 2025 have shifted to price in a nearly 45% chance of another cut, up from just 30% last week.<\/p>\n
We have seen how a shift in the Fed’s composition can change market direction, much like the Powell pivot in late 2018 which sparked a significant rally after a period of tightening. Miran’s confirmation is being viewed through a similar lens, suggesting a more aggressive pro-growth stance from the Fed into 2026. This has traders looking at longer-dated options on equity indexes, positioning for a sustained low-rate environment.<\/p>\n
In the immediate term, heading into next week\u2019s meeting, implied volatility is on the rise. The VIX has already climbed from 16 to just over 19 in the past few sessions, reflecting uncertainty around the tone of the Fed’s statement. Traders are buying short-dated straddles on the SPY, betting on a sharp move in either direction once the Fed’s commentary is digested post-announcement.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Senate will vote Monday on Miran’s Fed nomination, following recent rule changes easing confirmations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}