{"id":30137,"date":"2025-09-03T12:52:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T12:52:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=30137"},"modified":"2025-09-03T12:52:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T12:52:17","slug":"dollar-teeters-as-fed-cut-pressure-mounts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-teeters-as-fed-cut-pressure-mounts\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Teeters as Fed Cut Pressure Mounts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/usd5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16972\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX fell to 98.20, down nearly <strong>10% year-to-date<\/strong>, worst performance among major currencies<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed futures fully <\/strong><strong>price<\/strong><strong> in two 2025 cuts<\/strong>, with a third possible in early 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Political pressure on Fed<\/strong> escalates as Trump pushes to oust officials and overhaul governance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. dollar index slipped to 98.20 this week, edging closer to July\u2019s seven-month low of 95.97 as bearish sentiment dominated currency markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Down nearly 10% in 2025, the greenback has become the weakest major currency, weighed by aggressive Fed cut expectations and deepening political interference in monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">More tariff uncertainty means more trouble ahead for the US economy, says former New York Fed President Bill Dudley (via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/opinion?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@opinion<\/a>)  <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KRdKxPopXJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/KRdKxPopXJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1963189020990521704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 3, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders are now fully pricing in two rate cuts this year, with some expecting a third early next year. At the same time, markets have grown wary of U.S. central bank independence as former President Trump continues to criticise Chair Jerome Powell, calls for sharply lower rates, and pushes for the d<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/trWfSH61K7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">ismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trader concerns about U.S. fiscal discipline and the politicisation of monetary policy have fuelled an aggressive short-dollar trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Reuters FX survey found 80% of respondents <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vr2Bp5KmJg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">expect short bets to rise<\/a> or stay elevated through September. Meanwhile, the euro is forecast to reach 1.20 over the next 12 months as the dollar weakens further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, some strategists warn that consensus trades carry risk. A surprise inflation rebound or hawkish shift from the Fed could squeeze dollar bears and send the greenback higher in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US Dollar Index (USDX) has been in a prolonged downtrend since its February peak near 109.73, sliding to a low of 95.97 in July before stabilising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently trading around 98.20, the index is holding just above that July floor but remains capped below the 99.50 resistance area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/2_image-3-1024x450.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30138\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are flat and converging, showing indecision after months of weakness. The MACD is hovering near the zero line, reflecting muted momentum and the absence of a strong directional push.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the near term, resistance lies at 99.00\u201399.50, and only a decisive breakout above this would suggest a shift back toward bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, support remains firm at 96.00, with a break below exposing fresh downside risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until either boundary is cleared, the dollar is likely to remain range-bound, with traders watching closely for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">upcoming US jobs<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/news_release\/cpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">inflation data<\/a>, as well as Federal Reserve policy signals, to set the next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With markets leaning heavily short and Fed cuts priced in, the dollar remains vulnerable to policy surprises or inflation shocks. Traders will be watching Friday\u2019s <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">nonfarm payrolls<\/a><\/strong> report for signs of labour market strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hot print could delay cuts and lift the USD temporarily \u2014 but barring a major reversal, the greenback\u2019s broader downtrend looks set to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar index hovered near 98 as rate cut bets, central bank interference, and bearish sentiment continued to weigh on the greenback. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,11],"class_list":["post-30137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-indices"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. dollar index hovered near 98 as rate cut bets, central bank interference, and bearish sentiment continued to weigh on the greenback. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-teeters-as-fed-cut-pressure-mounts\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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