Bessent has commented in his second interview with Semafor. He mentioned the likelihood of Miran being a voter at the September FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Bessent expressed his intention to draft a brief for the US solicitor general. This brief would support Trump’s tariffs.<\/p>\n
Miran\u2019s potential decision to maintain interest rates in September would be unexpected.<\/p>\n
We’re seeing chatter that a new voter, Miran, could be on the September FOMC with a real chance of voting to hold rates. This is a significant development, as Fed Funds futures currently imply a 70% probability of a 25 basis point hike after the August CPI report came in at 3.4%. A surprise hold would catch a lot of the market offside.<\/p>\n
We believe this uncertainty makes buying volatility attractive in the coming weeks. The MOVE index, a key measure of bond market volatility, has already ticked up from its summer 2025 lows of 95. Positioning through short-dated options on SOFR futures could provide an effective hedge against a surprise decision from the Fed.<\/p>\n
The renewed discussion around tariffs adds another layer of complexity for us. Historically, like what we saw during the 2018-2019 period, broad tariffs can be inflationary, putting more pressure on the Fed to stay tight. This creates a conflicting signal if a new dovish member joins the committee, potentially leading to choppy action in currency pairs like USD\/JPY.<\/p>\n
Our immediate focus should be on any news from official channels regarding Fed governor confirmation hearings. The market has been anchored to the idea of one more hike this cycle, a view reinforced by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole symposium just last month in August 2025. Any credible report that Miran will be a voting member requires us to immediately re-evaluate our rate positions.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bessent highlights Miran\u2019s surprising FOMC vote possibility and plans to support Trump\u2019s tariffs legally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t