Gold is testing resistance around the 3,450 level, but a breakout seems unlikely now. The price increase follows a dovish stance from Powell last Friday, amidst rising inflation expectations and declining Treasury yields.<\/p>\n
The market lacks a catalyst for the current rally, suggesting it might be a brief surge before a larger downturn. Attention shifts to US labour market data, with the NFP report coming next Friday. Strong data could increase the likelihood of a September rate cut, potentially weighing on gold, while weaker data might lead to further price boosts.<\/p>\n
Gold’s long-term outlook appears positive as real yields are expected to decline with Fed easing. Short-term, hawkish adjustments in interest rate expectations could lead to market corrections. On the daily chart, gold is at the upper range of a four-month trend, with sellers likely eyeing resistance for potential downdrafts to 3,245.<\/p>\n
The one-hour chart shows a recent positive trend from Powell’s influence last Friday. Buyers have re-entered at the trendline and may do so again on pullbacks, while sellers focus on a break towards 3,245.<\/p>\n
Today’s average range is marked by red lines, suggesting limited continuation beyond resistance. Momentum divergence hints at a possible pullback. Next week, US labour market data will significantly affect gold, with hawkish shifts weighing it down and dovish expectations boosting it.<\/p>\n
Gold is currently testing the significant $3,450 resistance level, but we are skeptical of a breakout just yet. The recent rally was fueled by last Friday’s dovish comments from the Fed, which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 3.15%, its lowest point since early 2024. With the July 2025 CPI print still firm at 3.4%, falling nominal yields have crushed real yields, making non-yielding gold more attractive.<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s upward move seems fragile, as it lacks a fresh catalyst and shows divergence on momentum indicators. This looks like a final, exhaustive push before a potential correction, especially as the price reaches the top of its average daily range. For derivative traders, this suggests that buying call options at this exact moment carries a high risk of being caught in a reversal.<\/p>\n
The market is now entirely focused on next week’s US labor market data, culminating in the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, September 5th. This week’s initial jobless claims data showed a slight increase to 245,000, hinting at possible softening, which makes the NFP release even more critical. A strong report could cause a hawkish repricing and send gold lower, while a weak number would likely fuel bets on more rate cuts and push gold toward a new all-time high.<\/p>\n
Given this binary event risk, traders could consider strategies that profit from a decisive move. Buying short-dated put options with a strike near $3,400 offers a defined-risk way to position for a rejection from resistance following strong labor data. Conversely, traders anticipating a breakout on weak data might look at call options with a strike price above the $3,450 level to capture potential upside.<\/p>\n
For futures traders, entering a short position near the current resistance around $3,450, with a tight stop-loss just above it, aligns with the view that a pullback is likely. Long positions are less favorable until we see a confirmed break and hold above this key resistance. Patience is crucial here, as initiating a trade before the NFP data is essentially a coin flip.<\/p>\n
We have seen this pattern before, particularly when we look back at the market dynamics of late 2023 and early 2024. The anticipation of a Fed pivot back then created a powerful rally in gold that lasted for months. The current situation echoes that period, reinforcing the idea that while the long-term trend remains upward due to Fed easing, short-term corrections triggered by economic data are to be expected.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold tests resistance near $3,450; momentum divergence and upcoming labor data hint at possible near-term pullback.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}