{"id":29424,"date":"2025-08-21T10:24:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T10:24:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29424"},"modified":"2025-08-21T10:24:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T10:24:42","slug":"euro-slips-as-pmi-threatens-recovery-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/euro-slips-as-pmi-threatens-recovery-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Slips as PMI Threatens Recovery Hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx-80-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20946\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD trades at <strong>1.16325<\/strong>, down <strong>0.16%<\/strong>, after hitting a July peak of <strong>1.18297<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Commerzbank warns weaker PMIs could drag the euro lower if recovery signals falter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">euro <\/a>edged lower on Thursday as traders positioned ahead of the latest European purchasing managers\u2019 index surveys, a release seen as critical for gauging the region\u2019s recovery. EUR\/USD slipped <strong>0.2%<\/strong> to <strong>1.1631<\/strong>, with caution setting in as analysts warned the data could disappoint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The euro-zone economy is likely to see slower growth this quarter, with question marks over global trade remaining despite recent deals with the US reducing uncertainty, ECB President Christine Lagarde said <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vw8xaUHnJM\">https:\/\/t.co\/vw8xaUHnJM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1958078635375550670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Our research desk noted that while PMIs have recently <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CVvmnorKjS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">outperformed other leading indicators<\/a>, a weaker print could bring them back in line with signals of slower momentum. Markets had pinned hopes on the surveys to validate a more durable recovery narrative, but sentiment is fragile amid softer industrial output and consumer confidence figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>EUR\/USD has climbed steadily from its February low near 1.0210, peaking at 1.1829 in July before easing into a consolidation phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29426\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">#image_title<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The pair is now trading around 1.1632, holding above the 1.1500 support zone. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) are flattening, showing reduced momentum, while the MACD is close to the zero line, reflecting indecision after the strong rally earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, resistance sits at 1.1700\u20131.1830, with a breakout above potentially resuming the broader uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, a move below 1.1500 would weaken the outlook and expose 1.1350. For now, EUR\/USD appears range-bound, awaiting fresh direction from economic data and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/R6NfUDEMGq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">central bank policy signals<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A soft PMI print would likely push EUR\/USD back toward <strong>1.1500<\/strong>, with potential spillovers into bond and equity markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If PMIs surprise to the upside, however, the pair could retest <strong>1.1750<\/strong>, though conviction above <strong>1.1800<\/strong> may be harder to achieve without broader macro tailwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD holds near 1.1630 with markets braced for PMI data that could test Europe\u2019s growth outlook. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20946,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-29424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}