Goldman Sachs has revised its US gas price forecasts for the latter part of 2025. The forecast for November and December 2025 has been adjusted from $4.50 to $4.00 per MMBtu, while the September and October 2025 projection has been reduced by $0.55 to $3.35 per MMBtu.<\/p>\n
Despite these adjustments, Goldman Sachs retains a positive outlook for 2026, maintaining a price forecast of $4.60 per MMBtu. This forecast is notably above the forward prices, which stand at $3.81. The bank advises maintaining a long position in US gas for April 2026.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs attributes these revisions to expected lower demand in the near term, alongside a favourable supply-demand balance projected for the medium term.<\/p>\n
We are seeing near-term price forecasts for the rest of 2025 being trimmed due to softer demand expectations. The outlook for September and October has been cut to around $3.35\/MMBtu, reflecting robust supply. Indeed, the latest EIA data from mid-August 2025 shows natural gas storage is over 12% above the five-year average, creating a significant buffer heading into winter.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, this suggests caution on long positions for contracts expiring in late 2025. With dry gas production holding strong above 103 Bcf\/d, any bullish sentiment for the winter strip may be overstated. This environment could favor strategies that capitalize on range-bound trading or selling premium on winter contracts.<\/p>\n
However, the medium-term outlook flips entirely, presenting a clear opportunity further down the curve. The 2026 price forecast is being held firm at $4.60\/MMBtu, which is a significant premium over the current forward price of around $3.81. This discrepancy suggests the market is currently underpricing the structural shift expected next year.<\/p>\n
We believe this bullishness for 2026 is rooted in a major increase in demand from new LNG export facilities, like Golden Pass and Plaquemines, which are set to ramp up through 2026. This structural increase in demand reminds us of the market tightness seen back in 2022, when a surge in global demand exposed supply limitations and sent prices soaring. The expectation is that growing exports will more than absorb any slack in the domestic market.<\/p>\n
The direct strategy is therefore to look past the near-term softness and establish long positions in 2026 contracts. Specifically, a long April 2026 position is attractive as it allows traders to position for the tighter supply-demand balance ahead of the summer 2026 injection season. It is a way to capitalize on the medium-term bullish view while the market remains focused on the well-supplied 2025 picture.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Goldman Sachs lowers late 2025 gas forecasts, maintains bullish 2026 outlook amid shifting demand outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}