The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed keeps its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2025 at 2.5%. This value remains unchanged following adjustments in economic data released on August 15. <\/p>\n
Recent data from several key US institutions show a rise in personal consumption expenditures for the third quarter from 2.0% to 2.2%. Meanwhile, gross private domestic investment growth has been adjusted downwards from 7.3% to 6.6%.<\/p>\n
The figures are based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate and reflect inputs from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service are also key contributors to this data.<\/p>\n
An updated GDPNow estimate is expected on August 19. Future release dates are available in the “Release Dates” section for those tracking economic growth metrics further.<\/p>\n
With the latest GDPNow estimate holding steady at a solid 2.5%, the narrative of a resilient US economy continues. This figure suggests neither a major slowdown nor a dangerous overheating, which likely keeps the Federal Reserve on its current policy path for now. For traders, this reinforces the idea that significant interest rate cuts are not imminent.<\/p>\n
This stability may keep overall market volatility muted in the near term, a trend we’ve seen through much of the summer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been hovering near 14, well below its historical average of around 19, making options relatively inexpensive. We believe this presents an opportunity to buy protective put options on broad market indices or to structure long-volatility trades ahead of potential catalysts later in the quarter.<\/p>\n
The report’s internal details show a divergence that we can trade, with personal consumption growing while private investment is weakening. This points toward strategies favouring consumer discretionary sectors over those sensitive to capital spending, like industrials or commercial real estate. We might consider call options on consumer ETFs and put options on industrial sector funds to play this divide.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, the key event this month will be the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August. Given the steady growth and recent July 2025 CPI data that showed core inflation still elevated at 3.1%, any hawkish tone from Fed officials there could disrupt the market’s calm. Traders should be positioned for a potential spike in volatility surrounding that event.<\/p>\n
The persistence of growth above 2% validates the Fed\u2019s decision to hold rates firm since the hikes of 2022-2023. This environment likely means options on short-term interest rate futures will continue to price out any remaining hopes for a 2025 rate cut. This makes bearish positions on rate futures, betting that rates will stay higher for longer, a logical strategy.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow holds Q3 2025 growth at 2.5% despite consumption and investment data revisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29190"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29190\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}