The NZDUSD has risen to new highs following a US CPI report. The US dollar faced renewed pressure due to data aligning with forecasts, leading markets to expect an interest rate cut in September.<\/p>\n
The probability of easing has increased to 60 bps by year-end, up from 57 bps pre-CPI report. Market confidence grows for a September cut, with expectations of at least another before year-end. A hot September NFP report might alter these odds, though August features Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech as a potential influencer.<\/p>\n
The NZD remains steady with no major data shifts, apart from a labour market report aligning with expectations. Markets anticipate 42 bps easing by year-end with a 94% probability of a cut at the next meeting. <\/p>\n
On the daily chart, NZDUSD gains paused near a trendline at 0.60. A rally may see sellers engage, targeting a drop to 0.5850 support. <\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline defines bullish momentum, with buyers positioning for a rally and sellers eyeing a drop. On the 1-hour chart, resistance sits at 0.5965, with sellers targeting a downward move and buyers aiming for a rally. Upcoming US data includes PPI, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment reports.<\/p>\n
The date today is 2025-08-14T08:59:47.786Z.<\/p>\n
The US dollar is weakening because we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. The recent July 2025 Consumer Price Index report came in at 3.1%, showing inflation continues to cool and reinforcing this belief. This sentiment pushed the NZDUSD pair higher, but it is now meeting some resistance.<\/p>\n
Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with futures indicating 60 basis points of total cuts by year-end. This follows the last jobs report, which showed a softer-than-expected 170,000 jobs added in July 2025, giving the Fed more room to ease policy. We are now focused on Fed Chair Powell\u2019s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month for any change in tone.<\/p>\n
However, the New Zealand dollar has its own challenges, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut rates. With the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate at 5.50%, markets are anticipating nearly two full rate cuts by the end of the year. This dovish stance from both central banks is creating a ceiling for the currency pair.<\/p>\n
Given the resistance near the 0.6000 level, traders could consider buying NZDUSD call options with strike prices just above this major trendline. This would be a defined-risk way to profit from a potential breakout if US data tomorrow, like Retail Sales, comes in weaker than expected. This strategy limits potential losses if the resistance holds firm and the price reverses lower.<\/p>\n
Conversely, with the Jackson Hole event carrying significant risk, hedging against a downturn is prudent. Buying put options with a strike price below the immediate upward trendline, perhaps around 0.5900, could protect existing long positions. This acts as insurance against a surprisingly hawkish message from Powell, which would strengthen the dollar and send NZDUSD lower.<\/p>\n
Considering the major upcoming events, implied volatility is likely to increase. A long straddle, which involves buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price, could be a strategy to profit from a large price swing in either direction. This approach is best suited for traders who believe a significant market-moving announcement is imminent but are unsure of the direction.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZDUSD rises post-CPI; markets price September Fed cut. Technical levels suggest cautious bullish momentum persists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}