Oil stock data from a private survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API) suggests the following expectations: headline crude down by 0.3 million barrels, distillates up by 0.7 million barrels, and gasoline down by 0.7 million barrels.<\/p>\n
This survey gathers information from oil storage facilities and companies, and the official report will be released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
The API report provides information on total crude oil storage levels and changes from the previous week. In contrast, the EIA report includes detailed data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies, offering statistics on refinery inputs and outputs.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the EIA report provides insights into various grades of crude oil storage levels, such as light, medium, and heavy. The EIA report is considered more accurate and comprehensive compared to the API survey.<\/p>\n
We just saw the private survey data, and it points to a market that is much better supplied than we were expecting. Instead of the anticipated small draw in crude oil, the American Petroleum Institute (API) figures reportedly show a build of over 2 million barrels. This kind of divergence between expectations and the API release immediately introduces uncertainty and bearish sentiment into overnight trading.<\/p>\n
This surprise inventory build puts immediate pressure on oil prices, which have been trading in a relatively stable range between $82 and $86 for WTI crude over the past month. This news comes just a week after reports showed a slight dip in US consumer travel during the first week of August 2025, feeding a narrative of weakening demand. For now, this suggests the path of least resistance for prices is lower ahead of the more definitive data.<\/p>\n
The key takeaway for us is the spike in short-term volatility heading into tomorrow\u2019s official Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. The discrepancy between the API number and market forecasts creates a prime environment for a significant price swing. We should expect implied volatility on options expiring this week to be elevated, making strategies that profit from price movement, like straddles, more attractive but also more expensive.<\/p>\n
We must remember the potential for a head fake, as the API and EIA reports can sometimes show conflicting results. Looking back at the data from the spring of 2025, there were two separate instances where a surprise API build was followed by a much smaller, near-flat reading from the EIA, causing a sharp price reversal. The EIA data is more comprehensive, so a large directional bet ahead of its release carries significant risk.<\/p>\n
In the coming weeks, we will be watching to see if the official data confirms this potential trend of weakening demand and inventory builds. If the EIA report validates the API’s numbers tomorrow, it could signal a fundamental shift, potentially pushing WTI futures to test the psychological $80 support level we saw earlier in the summer. We should be ready to protect long positions or establish new short ones if the data confirms a glut.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" API survey shows slight crude drop, distillates rise; EIA’s full report to confirm oil inventory trends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}