The USDCAD moved above the 200-hour MA at 1.37817 and the 100-day MA at 1.37876 in a recent session. Despite these technical breaks, which often indicate potential upward momentum, the rally quickly lost traction, and the price fell below both moving averages.<\/p>\n
For those looking to sell USD or buy CAD, the 100-day MA serves as a point for establishing short positions. Should the price continue to drop, the targets include the 38.2% retracement at 1.37626 and the 100-hour MA at 1.3754.<\/p>\n
A further decrease in price could bring the focus to the 50% retracement as the next support area. Reflecting on the previous week’s activity, the pair fell below the 50% retracement but then reversed, showing the potential for such a shift again.<\/p>\n
Traders should exercise caution with failed breaks, as they may not guarantee sustained momentum. If the price moves back above the 100-day MA, it indicates a significant level for potential bias changes and risk assessment.<\/p>\n
Based on today’s price action on August 11, 2025, the USDCAD pair has shown a significant sign of weakness. The attempt to move above the 100-day moving average at 1.37876 failed, suggesting that sellers are taking control. This rejection at a key technical level indicates that the recent upward momentum has likely stalled.<\/p>\n
This price action is supported by fundamentals, as West Texas Intermediate crude oil has shown renewed strength, recently trading above $85 a barrel. A strong oil market is historically beneficial for the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, putting downward pressure on the USDCAD exchange rate. This gives us more confidence that the pair may continue to drift lower.<\/p>\n
We have also seen recent US economic data from July 2025 that points to a moderation in both inflation and job growth. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be finished with its rate-hiking cycle for the year. A less aggressive Fed typically weighs on the US dollar, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the pair.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this provides a clear opportunity to establish short positions or buy puts in the coming weeks. The 100-day moving average now acts as a firm resistance level to trade against, offering a well-defined point to manage risk. As long as the price remains below this 1.37876 level, the path of least resistance appears to be lower.<\/p>\n
The initial downside target would be the 38.2% retracement level at 1.37626. A break below that would open the door for a move toward the next support zone near the 100-hour moving average at 1.3754. If selling pressure accelerates, the 50% retracement level would be the subsequent logical target.<\/p>\n
We must remain mindful of market history, recalling a similar situation earlier this summer when a breakdown below the 50% retracement quickly reversed. Failed moves are a key technical pattern to watch out for. Therefore, if buyers unexpectedly return and push the price firmly back above the 100-day moving average, it would invalidate the bearish bias.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USDCAD breaks key moving averages, but fails to hold gains; key retracement levels now target support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}