This week has seen a decrease in gold’s bullish momentum as traders await the upcoming US CPI data. A soft Non-Farm Payroll report led to a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations, causing gold to rally due to falling real yields. The CPI data could influence future rate cuts, with lower figures reinforcing dovish bets and potentially suggesting a third cut by year-end. Conversely, higher CPI figures might result in a hawkish repricing, affecting gold’s position.<\/p>\n
In the broader context, gold is expected to remain in an uptrend as real yields fall alongside Federal Reserve easing. However, hawkish adjustments in interest rate expectations could lead to short-term corrections. On the daily chart, gold is approaching a resistance level around 3,438 after bouncing near the 3,245 support. Sellers may step in at this resistance, while buyers aim for a breakout to pursue a new all-time high.<\/p>\n
The 4-hour chart indicates waning bullish momentum with no clear trading levels. On the 1-hour chart, a minor upward trendline supports the bullish momentum. Buyers will likely use this trendline to push towards resistance, while sellers aim for a break below to target a pullback to the 3,350 level.<\/p>\n
The recent push higher in gold has lost its momentum as we now turn our attention to next week’s crucial US CPI inflation data. The rally was sparked by last week\u2019s soft Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed the US economy added just 110,000 jobs in July, well below expectations. This weak jobs number increased the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon.<\/p>\n
More Fed officials have started to sound more open to rate cuts since that report. Looking at market pricing, derivatives traders are now indicating a 75% probability of a rate cut at the September Fed meeting, up from around 40% before the jobs data. A cool inflation report next week could lock in that September cut.<\/p>\n
If the CPI data comes in lower than anticipated, we should expect the market to reinforce these bets on lower rates, which would be bullish for gold. On the other hand, a surprisingly high inflation figure would cause a rapid repricing, hurting gold in the short term. This would likely keep us trading within the recent price range.<\/p>\n
From a wider perspective, the overall trend for gold should remain upward. The Fed is still expected to continue its easing cycle through the end of 2025, which will likely keep pressure on real yields. However, any unexpected hawkish news will continue to cause temporary pullbacks.<\/p>\n
On the daily chart, we can see gold is slowly moving towards the key resistance level around $3,438. This level is just above the previous all-time high we saw earlier in May 2025, making it a significant hurdle. Sellers will likely be watching this zone to enter new positions, while buyers will be looking for a decisive break above it.<\/p>\n
Looking at the very short term, the upward momentum is weak and feels like it’s climbing by inertia. A minor upward trendline is currently supporting the price on the one-hour chart. If that trendline breaks, sellers will likely target a quick drop back toward the $3,350 level.<\/p>\n
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