The Trump administration is reportedly planning sanctions on Moscow’s covert fleet of oil tankers and several entities that facilitate their operation. This move accompanies an increase in tariffs on India to 50% as a penalty for importing Russian oil. The strategy aims to curb Russia’s oil sales while warning other countries of potential high tariffs on their US exports if they conduct business with Russia.<\/p>\n
In oil markets, prices have risen modestly, currently up by about $0.60 to $65.75. Despite the increase, the price has not yet dropped below its 100-day moving average of $64.96, which would suggest a more bearish technical perspective.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Trump intends to communicate with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy after a meeting between WH Witkoff and Russian President Putin. Kremlin aide Ushakov described talks with U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff as useful. Discussions included the Ukraine crisis and future developments in the Russia-U.S. partnership.<\/p>\n
Trump stated he is uninterested in speaking with Putin but has shifted to exerting pressure. Additionally, Trump deployed two nuclear submarines to strategic locations following provocative remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.<\/p>\n
The administration’s move to sanction Russia’s covert oil tankers and penalize importers like India is a major escalation. For us traders, this signals a period of heightened volatility in energy markets for the next several weeks. The primary focus should be on crude oil derivatives, as these policies directly threaten global supply.<\/p>\n
We should consider positioning for a potential spike in oil prices. These sanctions could disrupt a significant portion of the nearly 4.5 million barrels per day that Russia has been exporting via its so-called shadow fleet. This supply threat is happening just as yesterday\u2019s EIA data showed an unexpected draw in U.S. crude inventories of 4 million barrels, adding to market tightness.<\/p>\n
We remember how oil markets reacted back in 2022, when the initial invasion of Ukraine sent Brent crude prices well over $120 a barrel on supply fears. The current price near $65 seems to be under-pricing the risk of a similar, though perhaps smaller, shock if these sanctions are effective. This historical precedent suggests there is significant upside potential from current levels.<\/p>\n
The deployment of nuclear submarines and the tense diplomatic chatter add another layer of uncertainty. The VIX, a key measure of market fear, has already ticked up from 14 to 18 over the past month, and these events will likely push it higher. Therefore, buying call options on oil or volatility-focused ETFs could be a wise move to capture the upside from both rising prices and increased market nervousness.<\/p>\n
At the same time, we must keep an eye on the technical picture. The 100-day moving average at $64.96 is now the critical support level to watch. A firm break below this price would suggest the market is shrugging off the geopolitical news, signaling a bearish turn and a reason to reconsider bullish bets.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump targets Russia’s covert oil trade, sanctions planned; tariffs on India rise over Russian oil imports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28376\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}