The USDCAD recently increased but faced resistance near its 100-day moving average. This led to selling pressure, which pushed the pair lower by the market’s close.<\/p>\n
The downward trend persisted, driving the price back into a previous trading range from early June to late July. The upper boundary of this range coincides with the 38.2% retracement mark of the rally that started on 23 July, at 1.3762. This level serves as a short-term indicator of market direction. A rise above 1.3762 may suggest renewed buying interest, while staying below could target the July 23 low at 1.37268.<\/p>\n
The selling trend remains, raising questions about whether it will continue.<\/p>\n
Sellers are taking control of USDCAD, pushing it back into the familiar trading zone we saw from June to late July 2025. With the price now below the key 1.3762 pivot, the path of least resistance appears to be lower for now. This view is strengthened by the failure to hold above the 100-day moving average earlier this week.<\/p>\n
Fundamentally, this price action makes sense given recent data. Canada’s latest jobs report for July 2025 showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 45,000 positions, while last week’s US Core CPI reading cooled to 2.8%, slightly below forecasts. This divergence gives the Bank of Canada more reason to stay firm on interest rates compared to the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
We are also seeing renewed strength in WTI crude oil, which has reclaimed the $85 per barrel level on updated OPEC+ guidance. Historically, as we saw through much of 2022, a stronger oil price typically supports the Canadian dollar and puts pressure on the USDCAD exchange rate. This provides an additional tailwind for those selling the pair.<\/p>\n
For the coming weeks, buying put options with late August or September 2025 expiries appears to be a straightforward strategy. Traders could look at strikes around the 1.3750 level to play for a move down toward the July 23rd low of 1.37268. This approach offers a defined risk if the buyers unexpectedly regain control.<\/p>\n
Considering the pair is back in a \u201ccomfort zone,\u201d a bear put spread might be more prudent for some. This involves buying a put at a higher strike, like 1.3750, and selling another put at a lower strike, such as 1.3700. This strategy lowers the initial cost and profits if the price drifts lower within this established range, rather than breaking down aggressively.<\/p>\n
We should remember the prolonged periods of consolidation the pair experienced back in 2023, where it often got stuck between major support and resistance for months. Therefore, taking profits near established support levels like 1.37268 and 1.3700 is a sensible plan. It protects gains in case the pair simply bounces off the bottom of the range as it has done before.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USDCAD retreats after resistance; key level at 1.3762 may signal direction as selling trend extends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28372\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}