{"id":28229,"date":"2025-08-05T08:48:50","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T08:48:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=28229"},"modified":"2025-08-05T08:48:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T08:48:50","slug":"euro-climbs-as-fed-and-ecb-policies-diverge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/euro-climbs-as-fed-and-ecb-policies-diverge\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Climbs as Fed and ECB Policies Diverge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1408\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/Image_fx-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28232\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" title=\"euro\">euro<\/a> has rebounded from a recent seven-week low, climbing above the $1.15 level in early August trading. Traders are adjusting their positions based on these differing paths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expectations for a US interest rate cut grew after the latest jobs report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"weaker-than-expected payrolls data\">weaker-than-expected payrolls data<\/a> for July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The report also contained sharp downward revisions to the job figures for May and June. This series of weak data points has led many traders to anticipate a Fed rate cut as early as September, with a second cut possible before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Across the Atlantic<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB, in comparison, projects a steadier course. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/index.php?title=Inflation_in_the_euro_area\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"data from Eurostat\">data from Eurostat<\/a> showed that annual inflation across the Eurozone held at the ECB&#8217;s 2.0% target in July, marking the second month at this level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Euro area <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/inflation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#inflation<\/a> expected to be at 2.0% in July 2025, stable compared to June 2025. Components: food, alcohol &amp; tobacco +3.3%, services +3.1%, other goods +0.8%, energy -2.5% &#8211; flash estimate <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MuRMNBOy2f\">https:\/\/t.co\/MuRMNBOy2f<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vnwOhBlFdn\">pic.twitter.com\/vnwOhBlFdn<\/a><\/p>&mdash; EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EU_Eurostat\/status\/1951206275448254918?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This cautious stance suggests the bank will wait for more data before altering its policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2400\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/20250805-163523.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28230\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On a technical front, the immediate trend for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" title=\"EURUSD\">EURUSD<\/a> is showing a slight downturn of -0.21%. After a strong rally that peaked at 1.15971, the price has been trading in a sideways range, indicating indecision in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From our perspective, the market is currently in a state of indecision. Weak US data is providing a floor for the Euro, while the technicals and some fundamental factors are still pointing to potential weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break and hold <strong>above 1.1600<\/strong> would be a bullish sign and could signal a move towards higher resistance levels. A break <strong>below 1.1500<\/strong> and then <strong>1.1440<\/strong> would be a bearish confirmation and could open the door for a test of the 1.13916 low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*5vyjdn*_gcl_au*Njc1MzM0NjY0LjE3NTEzNTM4MTc.*_ga*MjA5ODA0NDIzNC4xNzI3OTE1ODQ1*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NTE4NzkxMDYkbzMwOCRnMSR0MTc1MTg3OTExOCRqNDgkbDAkaDA.*_ga_6XQ8153GYW*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzU3JGcxJHQxNzUxODc5MTE4JGo1MCRsMCRoMA..*_ga_BG6LYEHPX1*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMTgkajUwJGwwJGgw*_ga_J8BRGZSREX*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_7CG6454YR5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_69Z54R4H9N*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_CY2VCKFC3C*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjIkajQ2JGwwJGgw*_ga_TXZ07R2C21*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_17TMGY9BBE*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_MWDVVSEVL5*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_2QCC3S2748*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjUkajQzJGwwJGgw*_ga_E7D2PCX624*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_XJ4037XKK6*czE3NTE4NzkxMjYkbzUkZzAkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajYwJGwwJGgw*_ga_EJCVQDC7VT*czE3NTE4NzkxMDgkbzUkZzEkdDE3NTE4NzkxMjYkajQyJGwwJGgw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The euro recovers to trade above $1.15. Weak US jobs data fuels Fed rate cut bets while the ECB is expected to hold steady.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":28232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,56,10],"class_list":["post-28229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}