Silver experiences a recovery after early losses, closing above $36.50 following the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The report showed the US economy added only 73,000 jobs, missing the forecast of 110,000. A downward revision of June’s payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% paved the way for speculation on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.<\/p>\n
The latest data resulted in a sell-off of the US Dollar, boosting demand for silver. Declines in US Treasury yields supported this shift as market probabilities for a Fed rate cut surged to 82%. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, suggesting ongoing industrial challenges.<\/p>\n
Technically, silver bounced off support at the 50-day EMA while remaining below a broken ascending channel. The Relative Strength Index improved slightly, although it remains under 50, pointing to a cautious outlook. A recovery could target resistance in the $37.50-$38.00 range, while a drop below $36.00 might renew downward pressure.<\/p>\n
Silver prices are influenced by various factors including geopolitical instability and interest rates. Silver follows gold’s moves due to their similar investment roles, while demand from industries and currency dynamics also play roles. It is used in sectors like electronics and solar power, and industrial activities in the US, China, and India significantly impact its price.<\/p>\n
The weak jobs report from this morning has shifted our immediate focus. With the US economy adding far fewer jobs than expected and unemployment ticking up, we see the market pricing in an 82% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has sent the US Dollar Index falling below the key 103 level, creating a favorable environment for silver.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, we believe this calls for a cautiously bullish stance in the coming weeks. We are looking at buying call options with strike prices targeting the $37.50 to $38.00 range to capitalize on potential upward momentum. This strategy limits our downside risk if the recent bounce off the 50-day EMA proves to be a false dawn.<\/p>\n
This situation feels familiar when we look back at late 2023, a period when the market began anticipating rate cuts for 2024. During that time, silver prices rallied significantly in the weeks leading up to the new year, driven by speculation rather than actual policy changes. We may be seeing the beginning of a similar pattern now.<\/p>\n
Beyond monetary policy, the industrial demand picture provides a solid, if mixed, foundation for silver’s price. Recent industry data shows global solar panel installations are on pace to set a new annual record in 2025, which will continue to absorb physical supply. However, the drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 48.0 suggests that demand from other industrial applications could remain a headwind.<\/p>\n
Our primary risk is if Federal Reserve officials talk down the possibility of an imminent rate cut, causing a reversal in the dollar and yields. We must watch the $36.00 price level as our critical support. A break below that would suggest this rally has lost steam and would be our signal to reconsider bullish positions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Silver rebounds above $36.50 after weak jobs data, boosting Fed rate cut hopes and investor demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}