The EUR\/USD trades near a seven-week low, maintaining above the critical 1.1400 support. The US Dollar’s strength has caused the Euro to remain pressured for six consecutive days, with the US Dollar Index hitting a new two-month high close to the 100 level.<\/p>\n
Germany’s CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month in July, with the annual rate steady at 2.0%, meeting market expectations. Supplementary US data showed the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% MoM in June, with an annual increase of 2.8%, slightly above predictions of 2.7%.<\/p>\n
Personal spending in the US increased by 0.3% in June, bettering May’s figures, and personal income rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 218K for the week, below forecasts, indicating a tight jobs market.<\/p>\n
Germany’s mixed inflation data failed to buoy the Euro, with the monthly CPI at 0.3%, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. The Eurozone Unemployment Rate dipped to 6.2% in June, reflecting strength in the region’s labour market. The Euro was strongest against the Japanese Yen, as revealed in the day’s currency heat map.<\/p>\n
Given the persistent strength of the US Dollar, we see the EUR\/USD pair under significant pressure. The key takeaway is the divergence between a robust US economy and a more fragile Eurozone outlook, which is likely to dictate trading for the next few weeks. The critical support at 1.1400 is the main battleground to watch.<\/p>\n
The recent US data from July 2025 reinforces this view, with core inflation proving sticky and the labor market remaining tight. Looking back, the Federal Reserve has consistently signaled a “higher for longer” stance on rates throughout 2025, and this data gives them no reason to change course. This contrasts with the European Central Bank, which has hinted at a more cautious approach due to pockets of economic weakness in the bloc.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this suggests a bearish bias on the EUR\/USD is the path of least resistance. Buying put options with a strike price below 1.1400 could be a straightforward way to position for a breakdown. This strategy offers a defined risk if the support level unexpectedly holds and the pair bounces higher.<\/p>\n
We must also consider that major support levels can often produce a short-term rebound before breaking. Selling out-of-the-money call credit spreads could allow us to collect premium while betting that the pair will not rally significantly from current levels. This is a more conservative approach that profits from either a continued slide or sideways consolidation.<\/p>\n
Historically, we saw a similar prolonged test of a key psychological level back in early 2024 around the 1.0950 mark, which eventually gave way after several weeks of pressure. As we approach the 1.1400 level, we can expect implied volatility to rise, making options more expensive but also offering greater potential rewards. This environment favors strategies that can capitalize on a decisive move in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD nears seven-week low; strong US data lifts Dollar. Euro pressured despite steady German CPI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":16959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27853\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}