US initial jobless claims are reported at 218,000, compared to an estimate of 224,000. The previous week’s claims were at 217,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims is 221,000, down from 224,500 the week before. <\/p>\n
Continuing claims have decreased to 1.946 million from the previous week’s 1.955 million, which is under the estimate of 1.955 million. The four-week moving average for continuing claims is now 1.949 million, slightly down from 1.954 million. <\/p>\n
These figures suggest a stable job market, with a slight decrease in continuing claims. Chair Powell mentioned the balance of supply and demand for workers is steady, supporting this stability. A US jobs report is expected to be released tomorrow.<\/p>\n
The latest jobless claims figures show a steady labor market, which is reassuring for the broader economy. We see that initial claims are holding firm below 225K, suggesting employers are not aggressively cutting staff. This stability reduces the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to make any drastic moves on interest rates.<\/p>\n
This jobs data aligns with the recent Core CPI reading for June 2025, which came in at a stubborn 3.1%. With the Fed funds rate holding at 4.75% since the last hike in February 2025, the market is pricing in a low probability of a rate cut before the fourth quarter. This makes tomorrow’s full employment report even more critical for shifting those expectations.<\/p>\n
Given this mixed picture, we should anticipate a spike in volatility around tomorrow’s announcement. The VIX has been hovering around a relatively low 14.5 this past month, which might be too low considering the uncertainty. This reminds us of the summer of 2023, when similar ‘good news is bad news’ reactions caused sharp, short-term market swings after jobs reports.<\/p>\n
Traders might consider options strategies that benefit from a significant price move in either direction, such as a long straddle on the SPY ETF. This approach allows profiting from the increased volatility expected after the jobs numbers are released, regardless of whether the news is good or bad. Alternatively, for those betting on continued stability, selling covered calls on existing stock positions could generate income while we wait for a clearer signal.<\/p>\n
We need to watch the continuing claims figure closely, as its elevated level hints at some underlying weakness despite the solid initial claims. If tomorrow’s report shows a rising unemployment rate or weak wage growth, it could confirm this softness and quickly change the market’s mood. This could cause bond yields to drop and reignite bets on an earlier Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jobless claims slightly below estimates; continuing claims dip, signaling a stable U.S. labor market ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":17022,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t