{"id":25687,"date":"2025-07-03T03:33:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T03:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=25687"},"modified":"2025-07-03T03:33:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T03:33:57","slug":"aussie-dollar-slips-from-8-month-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-slips-from-8-month-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Slips From 8-Month High"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/aussie2-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16960\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD dipped 0.2% to 0.6571, down from an eight-month peak of 0.6590.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders now price in an RBA rate cut on 8 July, with ANZ forecasting back-to-back cuts in July and August.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar slipped to 0.6571 on Thursday, pulling back from its recent eight-month high of 0.6590 as traders shifted into risk-off mode ahead of Friday\u2019s pivotal U.S. non-farm payrolls report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US private payrolls declined in June \u2014 the first drop in over two years \u2014 due to economic uncertainty slowing down hiring, according to the ADP National Employment Report <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OKj0wJMell\">https:\/\/t.co\/OKj0wJMell<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kdxr7NY8cG\">pic.twitter.com\/kdxr7NY8cG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1940553574011863477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets were rattled after a weaker-than-expected U.S. private jobs report hinted at labour market softness. A further downside surprise in the payrolls data could strengthen the case for a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MkrPUi0hI3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Federal Reserve rate cut in July<\/a>, which would weaken the dollar and support the Aussie. But a stronger print could do the opposite\u2014boosting the greenback and pushing AUD\/USD lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Weak Domestic Data Cements RBA Cut Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australia\u2019s trade surplus shrank to a near five-year low in May, driven by a slump in commodity exports and a rise in capital goods imports. The disappointing release followed <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wJ25RqhPxy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Wednesday\u2019s soft retail sales figures<\/a>, which pointed to subdued household spending and weakened domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These back-to-back data misses have solidified expectations for an <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gJfpxCnynt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">RBA rate cut at next week\u2019s 8 July policy<\/a> meeting. ANZ joined other major Australian banks in forecasting a 25-bps cut, revising its outlook also to include a follow-up easing in August. Markets now price in nearly four more rate cuts by early 2026, with the cash rate potentially falling to 2.85% from the current 3.85%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With fundamentals softening and dovish policy on the horizon, upside potential in AUD\/USD remains capped unless U.S. data materially disappoints. AUD bears will eye 0.6540\u20130.6500 as a near-term zone to watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The AUD\/USD pair is exhibiting a choppy short-term structure, with intraday support forming at 0.65433 and resistance capping near 0.65880. After rebounding strongly from the session low, the pair climbed above the 30-period moving average and peaked around 0.65879. However, recent candles suggest a pullback is underway, with prices now trading below short-term moving averages (5, 10), and MACD turning bearish once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25688\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: Aussie stalls below 0.6590 as bulls fade, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Momentum is fading after the earlier bullish burst, and the MACD histogram has slipped back into negative territory, indicating a potential return to the lower consolidation range. Key support to watch remains at 0.65430, and if broken, could invite a drop toward 0.65200. On the upside, bulls must reclaim 0.65880 for any continuation toward the 0.6600 handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD edged lower as markets braced for Friday\u2019s U.S. payrolls data. Weak Australian trade figures and firm RBA rate cut bets added downside pressure despite recent highs. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-25687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AUD\/USD edged lower as markets braced for Friday\u2019s U.S. payrolls data. 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