{"id":25465,"date":"2025-06-30T03:25:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T03:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=25465"},"modified":"2025-06-30T03:25:24","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T03:25:24","slug":"yen-gains-ground-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-key-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/yen-gains-ground-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-key-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Yen Gains Ground as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/yen5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17043\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USD\/JPY fell to 144.14, testing two-week lows amid dollar softness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s May industrial production underwhelmed, while U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars remain unresolved.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese yen extended its recent gains on Monday, climbing toward 144 per U.S. dollar\u2014a two-week high\u2014as the greenback struggled under the weight of a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook and rising fiscal risks in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japan factory output rises, but slower than expected as US tariffs threat looms <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KjPD8Ci4V5\">https:\/\/t.co\/KjPD8Ci4V5<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KjPD8Ci4V5\">https:\/\/t.co\/KjPD8Ci4V5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1939519350567731442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 30, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>On the domestic front, Japanese industrial production rose in May but fell short of expectations. Analysts blame persistent headwinds from U.S. tariffs\u2014particularly the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/A282dk0Svk\">25% levy on Japanese car imports<\/a>, which remains unresolved in bilateral trade talks. This tariff continues to cast a long shadow over Japan\u2019s auto-heavy industrial economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, the yen found support from broader risk-off sentiment and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M6DzA2fpDp\">Fed-driven dollar weakness<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued softness in Japan\u2019s production could limit long-term yen upside unless accompanied by stronger BoJ policy signals. However, in the near term, USD\/JPY is more likely to be dictated by U.S. macroeconomic direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The pair has slipped to the 144.14 area, testing recent intraday lows (~144.09). Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) are descending, with the 5\u2011period MA crossing below the 10 and 30, signaling bearish momentum. MACD is trending negative, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-33.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25466\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Yen firms amid softer US yields, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support lies just below at the 143.90\u2013144.00 zone; a clean break could pave the way toward 143.50. On the upside, any bounce would face resistance near the intraday high around 144.75\u2013145.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This move comes ahead of this week\u2019s highly anticipated U.S. labour data, with markets expecting potential cracks in the job market. A weak print would add fuel to bets that the Fed will begin cutting rates as early as July. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>, there\u2019s already a near 20% probability of a July cut, with deeper easing priced in by December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the upcoming jobs report confirms labour market weakness, USD\/JPY could break below the 144.00 threshold and test support at 143.90. A stronger-than-expected print, however, could stabilise the pair back toward 144.70\u2013145.00 resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Tankan Survey Eyed for Domestic Clarity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are also looking ahead to Tuesday\u2019s release of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/statistics\/tk\/index.htm\">Bank of Japan\u2019s Tankan survey<\/a>\u2014a key gauge of business confidence in Japan. Traders hope it will provide clues about corporate resilience amid rising global trade friction and weak consumer demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Tankan shows declining optimism, it may trigger temporary yen weakness\u2014though the overall trajectory may remain yen-favourable if U.S. data continues to disappoint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Japanese yen nears a two-week high against the dollar as traders digest soft U.S. sentiment, looming labour data, and unresolved Japan\u2013U.S. trade tensions. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":17043,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10,45],"class_list":["post-25465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex","tag-yen"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25465\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}