{"id":25123,"date":"2025-06-25T04:56:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T04:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=25123"},"modified":"2025-06-25T04:56:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T04:56:44","slug":"aud-edges-higher-as-soft-cpi-fails-to-rattle-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aud-edges-higher-as-soft-cpi-fails-to-rattle-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD Edges Higher as Soft CPI Fails to Rattle Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/aussie2-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16960\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD rose 0.2% to $0.6502 after overnight high of $0.6519.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s monthly CPI slowed to 2.1% y\/y vs forecast of 2.3%, with core inflation at 2.4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar extended its modest recovery on Wednesday, buoyed by a cautious improvement in risk sentiment following a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This positive backdrop outweighed the drag from soft inflation data, which pointed to a weakening price trend across key consumer categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A gauge of Australia\u2019s monthly inflation cooled faster than anticipated in May, moving close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank\u2019s 2-3% target <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8QexFUTU93\">https:\/\/t.co\/8QexFUTU93<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1937689905959698554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australia\u2019s monthly CPI fell 0.4% in May, pulling the annual rate down to 2.1%, below expectations of 2.3%. The trimmed mean\u2014a core inflation gauge\u2014eased sharply to 2.4%, its lowest since late 2021 and under the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s (RBA) mid-point target of 2.5%. Housing costs, which spiked unexpectedly in April, cooled, while services inflation dropped to a three-year low of 3.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Markets Lock in July RBA Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CPI miss was enough to reinforce existing market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sZXdprah7w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">sentiment around the RBA\u2019s direction<\/a>. Rate futures now assign a 90% probability to a 25-basis-point cut on 8 July. TD Securities brought forward its forecasted cuts from August and November to July and August, citing the breadth of inflation weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three-year Australian bond futures hit a two-month high of 96.760 before profit-taking kicked in. Meanwhile, 10-year yields eased to 4.1553%, far below the mid-May peak of 4.583%. This reinforces the expectation of a dovish shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the RBA follows through with back-to-back rate cuts in July and August, the Aussie could remain under pressure in the medium term, especially against <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ew0vFJv9ro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">stronger peers like the euro<\/a>. However, if the global risk mood stays buoyant, short-term pullbacks may be limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aussie dollar saw a steady climb from the <strong>0.63741<\/strong> base on 24 June, peaking at <strong>0.65194<\/strong> before consolidating into a narrow range. The price currently trades at <strong>0.64985<\/strong>, with minor bullish bias supported by short-term moving averages beginning to flatten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-29.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25124\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: Momentum fades near key resistance at 0.6520, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the pair may range between $0.6470 and $0.6520 in the near term, the upside remains limited unless new macro drivers emerge. A move above $0.6552\u2014the recent top\u2014would require a risk-on surge or stronger commodity demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">start trading<\/a> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD holds firm near $0.65 despite softer-than-expected inflation data. Traders double down on expectations of a July RBA rate cut, while risk appetite from the Iran-Israel ceasefire supports upside. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-25123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AUD\/USD holds firm near $0.65 despite softer-than-expected inflation data. 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