{"id":24957,"date":"2025-06-23T09:18:49","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T09:18:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=24957"},"modified":"2025-06-23T09:18:49","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T09:18:49","slug":"euro-softens-as-pmi-miss-dulls-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/euro-softens-as-pmi-miss-dulls-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Softens as PMI Miss Dulls Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image_fx-80-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20946\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Euro slips to $1.1486 after eurozone composite PMI holds at 50.2, below the 50.5 forecast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MACD flattens near zero, indicating weakening momentum after the rebound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ECB likely to stay cautious, with no immediate inflation alarm despite rising service-sector costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro retreated to around <strong>$1.1486<\/strong> on Monday after the latest eurozone composite Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) came in below expectations. The June figure held steady at <strong>50.2<\/strong>, narrowly avoiding contraction territory but falling short of the <strong>50.5<\/strong> forecast by economists polled by <em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Euro zone needs more ECB stimulus, policymaker Centeno tells paper <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y72sN44aQ1\">https:\/\/t.co\/y72sN44aQ1<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y72sN44aQ1\">https:\/\/t.co\/y72sN44aQ1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1936772449732903124?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 22, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The muted PMI reading underscores a sluggish pace of recovery in the eurozone, particularly in the services sector, where input costs remain elevated. According to Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank, businesses continue to face cost pressures, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BG794vHSO7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">overall inflation picture<\/a> does not warrant immediate concern for the European Central Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shifting global trade dynamics are adding further drag on the single currency. U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration are expected to weigh more heavily on Europe than the United States. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an export-driven bloc, the eurozone faces the brunt of cooling global demand, reinforcing the European Central Bank\u2019s dovish stance and limiting euro upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US-UK deal &quot;is a good template&quot; for further tariff talks, Pangea Policy founder Terry Haines says. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NBghh2So9Z\">pic.twitter.com\/NBghh2So9Z<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/1936559761211699653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 21, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, the intensifying <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vPUGDPZEgM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Israel-Iran conflict<\/a> has fuelled a wave of risk aversion, bolstering safe-haven flows into the dollar. Higher oil prices, driven by regional instability, present another headwind for the eurozone, which remains heavily reliant on energy imports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECB now faces a delicate balancing act: managing inflation expectations driven by energy costs while supporting fragile domestic demand\u2014further reducing the likelihood of near-term tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> pair briefly touched an intraday low at <strong>1.14508<\/strong> before staging a recovery back toward <strong>1.14900<\/strong>, though upside momentum is now cooling. The recent rebound off support was sharp, but price is facing resistance around <strong>1.15200<\/strong>, where selling pressure has emerged once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-25.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24958\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Euro pares losses after dipping below 1.1460, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>MACD<\/strong> has flattened out near the zero line, and short-term moving averages are starting to converge\u2014suggesting that momentum is neutralising after the corrective bounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless EUR\/USD clears <strong>1.15200<\/strong>, this could evolve into a sideways consolidation. Key support remains near <strong>1.14500<\/strong>, while resistance is capped at <strong>1.15440<\/strong>, the previous high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With economic momentum mixed and the inflation outlook stabilising, traders expect the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/l77HH1qwSK\">ECB to maintain its current stance<\/a>, allowing the euro to drift rather than react sharply. That said, any additional downside in PMI or escalation in trade risks could tilt EUR\/USD further toward the <strong>1.1450<\/strong> support region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The euro weakened modestly on Monday following underwhelming PMI data, reinforcing expectations for ECB patience amid global tariff pressures. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":20946,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[56,10],"class_list":["post-24957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-euro","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}