{"id":23986,"date":"2025-06-05T02:38:39","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T02:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23986"},"modified":"2025-06-05T02:38:39","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T02:38:39","slug":"crude-slips-as-opec-strategy-sparks-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/crude-slips-as-opec-strategy-sparks-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Slips as OPEC+ Strategy Sparks Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/oil9-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17020\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>WTI futures settle near <strong>$62.73<\/strong>, down from a local high of <strong>$63.93<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Saudi Arabia signals price cuts and aggressive output increases; U.S. gasoline builds offset crude drawdowns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures retreated below <strong>$63 per barrel<\/strong> on Thursday, extending the previous session\u2019s losses as market confidence softened around a series of supply-tilted signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to continue with accelerated oil supply hikes in the coming months as it puts greater importance on regaining lost market share <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uGtkmQrEuc\">https:\/\/t.co\/uGtkmQrEuc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1930287148177018898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 4, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At the centre of the sell-off is Saudi Arabia\u2019s strategic pivot. Reports indicate Riyadh is pushing for an <strong>OPEC+ output hike of at least 411,000 barrels per day in August<\/strong>, with further increases possible in September. The aim appears to be regaining lost market share amid what is typically a high-demand summer window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the kingdom\u2019s concurrent <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VnZSyIxD3x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">price cuts to July-loading crude for Asian buyers<\/a>, <\/strong>down to near four-year lows, paints a more nuanced picture. The pricing strategy reflects weaker-than-expected demand from top importers like China, where industrial activity remains tepid and refinery throughput has shown signs of stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This dual signal of increasing volume into a softening market has stoked fears of oversupply heading into Q3, particularly if global growth slows under the weight of ongoing trade disputes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">U.S. Inventory Data Adds Fuel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures released midweek showed a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lUDWAcFi7U\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">modest draw in crude inventories<\/a><\/strong>, but larger-than-forecast builds in gasoline and distillate stocks undercut any bullish impulse. The gasoline surplus in particular suggests weak end-user demand \u2014 a troubling sign ahead of the U.S. driving season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gasoline stockpiles rose by over 3 million barrels, significantly above consensus expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase. Combined with Saudi\u2019s summer output push, the result has been a market doubting whether demand can match the scale of upcoming supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices remain rangebound after volatile swings between $62.18 and $63.93 in the past 24 hours. The price peaked at $63.93 during the U.S. session on 4 June before sharp profit-taking triggered a fast drop to intraday lows of $62.18. That level has since held firm, acting as strong support heading into the 5 June Asia session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-3-1024x446.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23987\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Oil rebounds off $62.18 low after sharp drop; recovery stalls below $63 with trend momentum still muted, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Price has recovered modestly and is now consolidating around $62.73\u2013$62.75, with moving averages converging near the current range, suggesting indecision and low momentum. The MACD histogram is gradually turning positive after a deep dip, but signal lines remain flat, implying a lack of conviction from bulls or bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained break above $63.00 could re-open a test of $63.50\u2013$63.90. Conversely, failure to hold the $62.50 zone may invite another leg lower toward $62.20 and $61.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While dips below <strong>$62.50<\/strong> may attract bargain hunters, a sustained move lower could follow if gasoline demand continues to disappoint and Saudi-led output momentum builds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI eyes $62 handle as OPEC+ expansion plans, soft Asian demand, and refined product surpluses pressure sentiment. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-23986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23986\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}