{"id":21502,"date":"2025-05-07T08:18:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:18:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21502"},"modified":"2025-05-07T08:18:23","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T08:18:23","slug":"gbp-dips-outlook-improves-on-trade-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/gbp-dips-outlook-improves-on-trade-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP Dips, Outlook Improves on Trade Hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/gbp2-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17032\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>GBP\/USD dipped to 1.33516, down 0.1%, but eyes a return to $1.3445 amid improving trade sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market may be overpricing BoE rate cuts ahead of Thursday\u2019s policy decision.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sterling slipped slightly on Tuesday, with GBP\/USD falling to 1.3352, but analysts at ING suggest that optimism surrounding UK trade developments and recalibrated rate expectations may support a near-term recovery. The pound\u2019s modest retreat follows a recent high of 1.34027, and while the short-term momentum has cooled, the broader setup hints at bullish potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors will seek clues over the future of the Bank of England\u2019s bond-selling program at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/W6QQqRasmo\">https:\/\/t.co\/W6QQqRasmo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1919998233754910935?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 7, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market sentiment turned cautious ahead of the <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/peWBrcAuwS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Bank of England\u2019s rate decision<\/a> on Thursday. While the BoE is widely expected to keep its key rate unchanged, traders have priced in as many as three cuts by year-end. ING\u2019s Chris Turner argues that this may be overly aggressive, especially given resilient UK labour and wage data. Should the BoE issue a more hawkish statement or downgrade the likelihood of easing, sterling could rally back toward the $1.3445 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding to the bullish case, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/5\/6\/india-uk-agree-historic-trade-deal-including-tariff-cuts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">UK announced a trade deal with India on Tuesday<\/a>, and there is mounting speculation of a potential agreement with the United States in the coming days. These developments, alongside the scheduled <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/eu-uk-hold-annual-summits-draft-statement-shows-2025-05-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">May 19 UK-EU summit<\/a>, are improving the post-Brexit political and economic climate, which could reduce structural pressure on the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GBP\/USD saw a strong rebound from the 1.3260 region on May 6th, forming a clean intraday uptrend that peaked at 1.3403 in early trading on the 7th. Price action has since moderated, consolidating in a narrow range between 1.3350 and 1.3380. Short-term moving averages (5\/10\/30) are flattening, suggesting waning bullish momentum, while the MACD histogram shows a mild bearish crossover and narrowing bars\u2014indicative of stalling upside drive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-5-1024x442.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21503\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: GBP\/USD climbs from 1.3260 low, hits 1.3403 before consolidating, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite this, the pair continues to hold above key support near 1.3333, preserving the potential for a fresh push higher if dollar softness resumes. Immediate resistance sits at 1.3380 and 1.3403, while support lies at 1.3330 and deeper at 1.3260 if sellers regain control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sterling may continue to consolidate near 1.3350 ahead of the BoE decision, but renewed trade optimism and a hawkish hold could see GBP\/USD retest the 1.3400\u20131.3445 zone this week. Any surprise dovish tilt from the BoE, however, could drag it back toward the 1.3300 threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UK trade diplomacy and ECB divergence could keep GBP supported despite short-term pullback. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":17032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[10,58],"class_list":["post-21502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex","tag-pound"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"UK trade diplomacy and ECB divergence could keep GBP supported despite short-term pullback. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/gbp-dips-outlook-improves-on-trade-hopes\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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