{"id":21268,"date":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21268"},"modified":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","slug":"aud-usd-rises-as-rba-rate-cut-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aud-usd-rises-as-rba-rate-cut-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD Rises as RBA Rate Cut Looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/aussie9-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16967\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Key Points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australian retail sales rose just 0.3% in March; Q1 volumes stalled.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AUD\/USD climbs 0.4% to $0.6410 amid hopes for U.S.-China trade progress.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar pushed higher on Friday, recovering 0.4% to reach $0.6410, as global risk sentiment improved on hopes of renewed trade talks between the United States and China. This rise came despite weaker-than-expected local consumption data that painted a more fragile picture of Australia&#8217;s domestic economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The outcome of Australia\u2019s tight federal election could be the next catalyst for local assets as a tariff standoff between the US and China continues to rattle markets. Here are the stocks to watch. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yriaOdHyLJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/yriaOdHyLJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1917777788217577961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Retail sales for March rose only 0.3%, while retail volumes for the first quarter were flat\u2014marking a worrying signal for household demand. The data increases pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its 20 May meeting. Economists at ANZ now see a <a href=\"https:\/\/au.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/free-fall-sets-rba-up-for-aggressive-interest-rate-cuts-essential-031424836.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">25 basis point cut in the RBA\u2019s 4.10% cash rate<\/a> as a near certainty, citing muted inflation and ongoing global risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have priced in 75 basis points of easing by year-end, placing the year-end cash rate around 3.00%. Traders expect the RBA to downgrade its household spending outlook further as inflation remains benign and consumption fails to lift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the weak retail backdrop, hopes of tentative progress in <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ggiEX61zUp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">U.S.-China trade negotiations<\/a> provided some lift. Risk assets rallied globally, and the Aussie found solid support near $0.6340 after failing to breach the $0.6450 resistance. For now, technical conditions suggest a broad range trade, but the path of least resistance leans downward unless trade developments continue to surprise positively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong> pair has shown a <strong>bullish rebound<\/strong>, with price climbing from a session low of <strong>0.63692<\/strong> to test resistance near <strong>0.64130<\/strong>, just shy of the prior high at <strong>0.64272<\/strong>. The <strong>moving averages (5,10,30)<\/strong> have aligned in bullish formation, supporting the upward momentum. A break above <strong>0.64272<\/strong> could clear the path for further upside extension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/image-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21269\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: AUD\/USD eyes a breakout as bulls return to challenge the 0.6427 ceiling, seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the <strong>MACD (12,26,9)<\/strong> shows increasing green histogram bars and a bullish crossover above the zero line, reinforcing the strength of the current push higher. However, the move is nearing short-term resistance, and momentum may slow unless volume picks up or the pair decisively breaks above <strong>0.64272<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bias remains bullish in the short term<\/strong>, but the pair is approaching a key test of resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Market Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WcJiTq6lQT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Australian political uncertainty<\/a> may return to the fore as voters head to the polls this weekend. The election is tightly contested, with the potential for a hung parliament. However, analysts expect limited market reaction given both major parties support central bank independence and maintain centrist economic platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With domestic headwinds mounting and external trade dynamics shifting, the Australian dollar may stay range-bound in the near term. A decisive break above $0.6450 or below $0.6340 will likely depend on incoming macro data and clarity from the RBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD climbs as traders weigh soft domestic data against improving trade sentiment. Markets brace for a likely RBA rate cut in May. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-21268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21268\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}